Iowa Caucus Guy’s Presidential Election Blog

Too much going in my life and too much going on in the race to be of much value, but still I try.  So here's a few takes. Pete Buttigieg-  See that's why I want to blog, because I saw Pete's star was about to rise and I would love to have documented that and tell everyone I was first.  Three weeks ago,  he visited Eastern Iowa, and it was clear from papers like the Iowa City Press-Citizen and the Cedar Rapids Gazette that he was connecting.  His strength being as a mayor, he actually had been an administrator. It's a strength that may be an unexpected advantage.  It is also clear that as a millennial, he is connecting across all sort of demographics.  Also, he is a Midwesterner. Since, I didn't get it down in print, let me just add, an Emerson College poll made worldwide news as Buttigieg finished in 3rd place in Iowa polling, behind stalwarts Biden and Sanders, inching out Kamala Harris.  Buttgieg is the new Beto and I wish I...

With so many candidates, I have given up hope of adding any particular timing insight to the Presidential Race. Still, I will try my best. On Sunday, the Des Moines Register updated their poll some three months or so since the first one.  Now, we know most everyone is running.  Bernie Sanders has made it official.  Beto O'Rourke will be in Iowa this week and it looks like he will likely jump in as well. It is a fantastic poll but I give the Register a few deductions. For starters, as with last time, Joe Biden is still in the lead.  Joe isn't officially running, so I think it would have been worthwhile to do polls including, but also excluding him.  In the extra commentary, the Register does indicate that Biden's supporters shift to Bernie (maybe obvious, maybe not) and so the results kind of stand.  In any case, if he doesn't run, I feel this is meaningless.  Joe did drop 5 points, so I guess there was some disbursement,  ...

I have blogged the last four elections, and there is no reason for me to sit this one out. That said, time constraints have hampered me, and after doing this long enough, I don't want to write something that has already been said, and no doubt I am trying to be timely, but I can't be trusted for that. So, you're going to get February, much like the month's winter weather, in a few short dense blasts. For starters, everyone who was on the list of potential candidates is probably running. It usually doesn't work like that, and most will not make it that far, but that is our current state. Bernie Sanders's announcement is a big one. I compare Bernie to Ron Paul, who has a loyal, committed audience. The Democrats have generally been the party for new blood. Obama, Clinton and Carter are examples of that, whereas Mondale, Hillary and Gore failed. I don't know if Sanders will fall in that regard, or if he will have new life in his campaign. In an...

In December, I spoke of the Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN poll of probable Democratic caucus goers. It was, of course, a front page feature in the Sunday Register. It should be noted though that they did the same thing for Republicans. In the midst of a bunch of stories that the GOP doesn’t plan on making things too hard on President Trump, there are also certainly whispers on a possible primary challenge.                                                                                             (Flake and Corker or possi...

Last week, Elizabeth Warren announced a Presidential Exploration Committee and a high profile visit to Iowa.  That’s a game changer right there. The right- leaning local talk station headlines it with a “First Serious Candidate visit” blast. Which was surely news to Cory Booker and others. They also helpfully explained she her visit was mere miles away from Pocahontas County. More insightfully, a local talking head/ former Republican state congressperson said there are three groups of Democrats and those groups are forming around Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Beto O’Rourke so Warren might end on the outside looking in. True enough, maybe, though Warren did speak to packed houses (and a picture of her event in Time magazine looked like a rock concert) so let’s not jump to conclusions. It’s a field of 25 to 40 potential candidates that will likely scatter once some big names get in. In the meantime, the annual Progress Iowa dinner was held in mid December is a nice med...

Iowa Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann made news in November when he said essentially we are looking forward to seeing everyone at the Caucuses, and you can support any candidate that you want as long as it's Trump. Kauffman's quotes over the last couple of years include "We love Donald Trump! And if you don't love him (Ben Sasse), I'd suggest you stay on your side of the Missouri River." and "Quite frankly, if Iowa wants to retain our first-in-the-nation caucus status we can't have people wandering off and supporting all these other fringe candidates." It's clear the chairman who has said he's 1000% behind Trump isn't looking for competition. However, even in November, he stopped short of cancelling the Straw Poll. Now, that California has made it known that they are holding a primary in March of 2020, all bets are off. Iowa is fiercely proud of it's first-in-the-nation status, and it is something that may even tru...

It's been two months since my last blog post about the election. We had just seen a flurry of potential candidates make trips to Iowa. Since then, Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg have visited, because when you are the 11th richest person in the world and have billions of dollars, time and means, there's no place you want to be in December than Iowa. A younger blogger me would have wrote posts about these visits, but let's be fair, there's a lot of candidates and a long ways to go. The Register lists 20 possible candidates, and that looks to be a good working number, but feels infinitely expanding. (I suspect 20 was arbitrarily selected as there is no Martin O'Malley, Terry McAullife, or Sheryl Sandberg to name but a few). The Register last week ran a front page story about the 50 Most Influential Democrats in the states, which seemed rather pointless (particularly at this point in the cycle), but g...