Waiting for Joe. D'oh!
With so many candidates, I have given up hope of adding any particular timing insight to the Presidential Race.
Still, I will try my best.
On Sunday, the Des Moines Register updated their poll some three months or so since the first one. Now, we know most everyone is running. Bernie Sanders has made it official. Beto O'Rourke will be in Iowa this week and it looks like he will likely jump in as well.
It is a fantastic poll but I give the Register a few deductions.
For starters, as with last time, Joe Biden is still in the lead. Joe isn't officially running, so I think it would have been worthwhile to do polls including, but also excluding him. In the extra commentary, the Register does indicate that Biden's supporters shift to Bernie (maybe obvious, maybe not) and so the results kind of stand. In any case, if he doesn't run, I feel this is meaningless. Joe did drop 5 points, so I guess there was some disbursement,
The other deduction is because the Sunday paper has no mention of the GOP. As with last time, this was covered online (and maybe through the week, I don't know) and I feel it should have been included. The Register online article echoes the last results and ran under a shocking banner that 40% of Iowa Republicans want to see more than a one person race. That said, 80% of Iowa Republicans have a favorable opinion of Trump, so it seems a nonstarter. As far as any competition. Kasich and Howard Schultz have some nominal support, but nothing that stands out.
In any case, here are your current 2020 Iowa Democratic Poll Results
Joe Biden 27%
Bernie Sanders 25%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Kamala Harris 7%
Beto O'Rourke 3%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Cory Booker 3%
Michael Bennet 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Julian Castro 1%
John Delaney 1%
Pete Buttigieg 1%
Steve Bullock 1%
Nothing particularly stands out, with one exception, Beto O'Rourke falling from 11%, and it would appear at a glance, that is support added to Bernie.
Yes, there are some changes around the 1% crowd, but none of that is particularly of interest. The only thing that stands out to me is Mike Bloomberg came in at 3% last time, and did not register.
Second choices are important in the caucus, so we always run the numbers on 1st and 2nd preference and total them.
Joe Biden 46%
Bernie Sanders 38%
Elizabeth Warren 21%
Kamala Harris 18%
Beto O'Rourke 11%
Amy Klobuchar 6%
Cory Booker 6%
Julian Castro 3%
Michael Bennet 2%
Pete Buttigieg 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Jay Inslee 1%
John Delaney 1%
Steve Bullock 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Nothing really insightful here, as the order remains the same. Julian Castro starts to break through a bit over his peers, as does Tulsi Gabbard, but again, the numbers are so very low at this point.
of note, 10% of Democrats are still unsure, and that is enough for a momentum swing.
A few other questions that they threw out include 21% of Democrats say that they will be dissatisfied with a nominee who is a straight white man, while 40% of Democrats weren't sure.
The same question was asked about the eventual nominee being someone who thinks the country should "be more socialist". 56% would be satisfied, while 33% would be dissatisfied, and 11% saying "very dissatisfied".
Healthcare was the big issue with 84% of Democrats supporting some sort of "Medicare for All". 80% of Dems think Climate Change should be talked about "a lot", with 65% supporting the Green New Deal in full.
Impeachment talk got minimal response. 22% said they felt it should be talked about alot.
Taxes on the Wealthy were a big hit with Dems as well, getting 89% of some kind of support.
Bernie does better than the field among those who are younger in age and do not ascribe to a particular religion. No real surprise there, probably.
An easy conclusion would be that Bernie has momentum, but it can also be around the recent announcement to run. Jumping 19% to 25% is significant, and he is within striking distance of Biden (something that couldn't have been said in December). He also has put significant distance ahead of Warren and O'Rourke.
That said, pundits think Biden would run, and about two-thirds of Dems want to see him run (one third thinking he has waited too long), and if he does, then we really have a race. For now, we might be waiting for Joe.
Still, I will try my best.
On Sunday, the Des Moines Register updated their poll some three months or so since the first one. Now, we know most everyone is running. Bernie Sanders has made it official. Beto O'Rourke will be in Iowa this week and it looks like he will likely jump in as well.
It is a fantastic poll but I give the Register a few deductions.
For starters, as with last time, Joe Biden is still in the lead. Joe isn't officially running, so I think it would have been worthwhile to do polls including, but also excluding him. In the extra commentary, the Register does indicate that Biden's supporters shift to Bernie (maybe obvious, maybe not) and so the results kind of stand. In any case, if he doesn't run, I feel this is meaningless. Joe did drop 5 points, so I guess there was some disbursement,
The other deduction is because the Sunday paper has no mention of the GOP. As with last time, this was covered online (and maybe through the week, I don't know) and I feel it should have been included. The Register online article echoes the last results and ran under a shocking banner that 40% of Iowa Republicans want to see more than a one person race. That said, 80% of Iowa Republicans have a favorable opinion of Trump, so it seems a nonstarter. As far as any competition. Kasich and Howard Schultz have some nominal support, but nothing that stands out.
In any case, here are your current 2020 Iowa Democratic Poll Results
Joe Biden 27%
Bernie Sanders 25%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Kamala Harris 7%
Beto O'Rourke 3%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Cory Booker 3%
Michael Bennet 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Julian Castro 1%
John Delaney 1%
Pete Buttigieg 1%
Steve Bullock 1%
Nothing particularly stands out, with one exception, Beto O'Rourke falling from 11%, and it would appear at a glance, that is support added to Bernie.
Yes, there are some changes around the 1% crowd, but none of that is particularly of interest. The only thing that stands out to me is Mike Bloomberg came in at 3% last time, and did not register.
Second choices are important in the caucus, so we always run the numbers on 1st and 2nd preference and total them.
Joe Biden 46%
Bernie Sanders 38%
Elizabeth Warren 21%
Kamala Harris 18%
Beto O'Rourke 11%
Amy Klobuchar 6%
Cory Booker 6%
Julian Castro 3%
Michael Bennet 2%
Pete Buttigieg 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Jay Inslee 1%
John Delaney 1%
Steve Bullock 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Nothing really insightful here, as the order remains the same. Julian Castro starts to break through a bit over his peers, as does Tulsi Gabbard, but again, the numbers are so very low at this point.
of note, 10% of Democrats are still unsure, and that is enough for a momentum swing.
A few other questions that they threw out include 21% of Democrats say that they will be dissatisfied with a nominee who is a straight white man, while 40% of Democrats weren't sure.
The same question was asked about the eventual nominee being someone who thinks the country should "be more socialist". 56% would be satisfied, while 33% would be dissatisfied, and 11% saying "very dissatisfied".
Healthcare was the big issue with 84% of Democrats supporting some sort of "Medicare for All". 80% of Dems think Climate Change should be talked about "a lot", with 65% supporting the Green New Deal in full.
Impeachment talk got minimal response. 22% said they felt it should be talked about alot.
Taxes on the Wealthy were a big hit with Dems as well, getting 89% of some kind of support.
Bernie does better than the field among those who are younger in age and do not ascribe to a particular religion. No real surprise there, probably.
An easy conclusion would be that Bernie has momentum, but it can also be around the recent announcement to run. Jumping 19% to 25% is significant, and he is within striking distance of Biden (something that couldn't have been said in December). He also has put significant distance ahead of Warren and O'Rourke.
That said, pundits think Biden would run, and about two-thirds of Dems want to see him run (one third thinking he has waited too long), and if he does, then we really have a race. For now, we might be waiting for Joe.
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