Iowa Caucus Guy’s Presidential Election Blog

  We are 48 hours past the first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Much will be written though I can’t imagine anyone will have changed their opinion. It takes me back to a year ago when I was scrutinizing the Democrats candidates as possible debate opponents for Donald Trump. While I don’t think anyone was able to dominate the debate stage- at various moments there were Pete Buttigieg always level- headed and unshaken, Kamala Harris, a former prosecutor and Marianne Williamson, a public speaker who focused on lifestyle not policy. Even more unlikely than Williamson, at various times, it seemed like some unorthodox candidates might emerge. In the early days of the campaign, Michael Avenatti seemed an alternative elixir for the “they go low, we go high”. Later, it was comedian Ben Glieb who surely had handled a heckler or two in his career. I can only propose what I would do in a debate with 45, but the point is moot, the nominee chosen. This isn’t the dirtiest campaign...

Life has been strange, of late, but I always intended to write at least three (and heck, maybe four) posts covering the Iowa Libertarian Party Presidential Forum. It was very exciting to have something like this in my backyard, and I feel obliged to write about it, since I didn't see anything about it in the Des Moines paper (Not to worry, they barely cover the Democratic and Republican races either, these days). The Libertarian Party, of note, has established itself as America's third party- in 2016, appearing on the ballot in all 50 states, gaining over 3% of the vote, and receiving in the neighborhood of Four-and-a-half million votes. There has always been a strong contingent for a Third Party.  In my lifetime, the Reform Party made a strong impact, but seemed to be tied to the personality of Ross Perot.  The Green Party under Ralph Nader similarly was able to get the nation's attention, but has become something of a boutique party for Jill Stein, and now, Howie Ha...

The Libertarian Party of Iowa Presidential Forum may have been the most fun I have ever had in politics.  The Gazette's Adam Sullivan was a fantastic moderator. I will get to that at some point, but today, I want to focus on my big three takeaways. First, I was amazed at the fraternity and camaraderie that I observed before and after the debate. Contrast this to the Democrats who have slowly aligned behind Joe Biden. If you are reading my log, you likely watched at least part of one of the Democratic debates this cycle.  I mean, there were like, a dozen of them. Can you picture any three of the candidates onstage having a cordial conversation afterwards?  Could you imagine Bernie and Elizabeth laughing together?  Did you feel the tension when Tulsi Gabbard, Mike Bloomberg, and even Tom Steyer were on stage?  Would John Delaney be welcome in a crowd? That's all speculation, of course.  The Dem Crowd of 25 may have been 'thick as thieves' off camera...

With a week like this, the Joe Biden campaign looks to be in trouble. I won't say that I am terribly surprised, as many of the local Democrats that I talk to have been reflecting that as well. Later in this post, I can get into those whys. Biden still leads the National polls. It can be said fairly confidently that even in the last month, he has had up to 35% of National Democrats. Not only that, for the most part, he is comfortably ahead of second place which is either Sanders or Warren, depending on the poll. Yet, we know, it's not a National vote. We may also agree that winning Iowa does not guarantee anything, but we do agree that with the early states, momentum shifts. I can't help but think of 2008.  At this exact time, Rudy Guillani led National polls with similar numbers. He would spend the next month neck and neck with Mike Huckabee nationally, and then quite suddenly, faded. I thought of 2004, too, but that's a bit longer back, so I had to go back ...

Not that I necessarily planned on it, but I have watched most of the Democrat debates, and it feels natural to share my insights here.  I did watch this weekend's Saturday Night Live, and to be honest, I think they nailed it. I grew up on SNL, so am really enjoying what I feel is them hitting their stride again. The SNL I grew up with was the rebounding of the 90s with Hartman, Carvey, Lovitz, Dunn, Jackson, Nealon, Miller, and Hooks; but it was also a time where cable started to run the classic first Not Ready for Prime Time Players as well. Anyway, if you have 12 minutes, go ahead and watch. I will wait.   So for me-  I assume everyone has their minds made up about Warren and Sanders, right?  Biden can't make it a night without a gaffe. He answered a question about Domestic Violence by saying you got to "keep punching" . He also said he had the support of the " Only Black Female Senator " which ignored the fact that Kamala Harris w...

It’s been a busy month but I feel committed to this thing so let’s blog about the third debate. My favorite part was Final Jeopardy where Alex asked who composed “Transcendental Etudes”. Seriously though, this was supposed to be the one that had all the heavyweights on the same stage together for the first time. What we got was a reminder that this Party is getting old. In place of the youth of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama was Metamucil and Matlock. Oh, I suppose it wasn’t so bad, but I will remember this debate for Bernie Sanders's constant hacking and Joe Biden telling parents to have the record player on at night. Vinyl will outsell Compact Discs in 2019 for the first time since 1986, so let's not be too harsh on Joe.  Besides, from what I can tell, hipsters love Joe Biden.  Not you, of course, reading this while wearing a Biden button and listening to Deafheaven.  I mean, the other hipsters. This guy's dream ticket is Joe Biden and Father John Mi...