It's Not a Real Election until the Des Moines Register Poll comes out
It's been two months since my last blog post about the election. We had
just seen a flurry of potential candidates make trips to Iowa. Since
then, Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper and former New York City Mayor
Michael Bloomberg have visited, because when you are the 11th richest
person in the world and have billions of dollars, time and means,
there's no place you want to be in December than Iowa.
A younger blogger me would have wrote posts about these visits, but let's be fair, there's a lot of candidates and a long ways to go. The Register lists 20 possible candidates, and that looks to be a good working number, but feels infinitely expanding. (I suspect 20 was arbitrarily selected as there is no Martin O'Malley, Terry McAullife, or Sheryl Sandberg to name but a few).
The Register last week ran a front page story about the 50 Most Influential Democrats in the states, which seemed rather pointless (particularly at this point in the cycle), but goes to show the Caucuses aren't just the Register's Super Bowl, it's the entire football season.
The Register Poll is the most respected barometer of the Presidential race, though like the weatherman's predictions, no one remembers what they said the day before, only what actually happened.
When we last met, I reported on Iowa StartingLine's poll, and the Register isn't that much different. Still, we have the addition of Bloomberg, the rise of Beto O'Rourke, and though it has little effect on the numbers, we have seen the end of Michael Avenatti's bid for the White House. I don't know that I would have ever supported Avenatti, but as a blogger, this feels like a big blow. An Avenatti campaign would have been tremendous.
So here we go. Who do Democrats want to be their candidate?
Joe Biden 32%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Beto O'Rourke 11%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Kamala Harris 5%
Cory Booker 4%
Michael Bloomberg 3%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Sherrod Brown 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Julian Castro 1%
John Delaney 1%
The results are a near mirror of the IowaStartingLine Poll, with Sanders having a significant gain to a comfortable second place. It also shows Biden with a nice sized lead, and introduces a few new contenders, and lost momentum for John Delaney and Kirsten Gillibrand.
Of course, the nature of the caucuses, it is important to poll both first choices and second choices. The Register reports this as an aggregate score, and in theory, should be as insightful as a straight preference poll.
Joe Biden 50%
Bernie Sanders 33%
Beto O'Rourke 23%
Elizabeth Warren 18%
Kamala Harris 11%
Cory Booker 11%
Michael Bloomberg 6%
Amy Klobuchar 5%
Sherrod Brown 3%
John Hickenlooper 2%
Julian Castro 1%
John Delaney 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Eric Holder 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Tom Steyer 1%
Eric Swalwell 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
A three-tier field emerges now, but also some more obscure names also start to emerge. Is there a future star hiding in there?
Favorable ratings seem important in case this comes down to a head-to-head race. Four Democrats boast Favorable ratings of 50% or more
Joe Biden 82%
Bernie Sanders 74%
Elizabeth Warren 64%
Beto O'Rourke 53%
Those least favorable
Hillary Clinton 49%
Michael Blomberg 31%
Bernie Sanders 22%
Elizabeth Warren 20%
If you do Positive minus Negative
Biden +67%
Sanders +52%
Warren +44%
O'Rourke +42%
Harris +39%
Booker +37%
Klobuchar +30%
Gillibrand +29%
Holder +26%
Harris and Booker seem to be neck and neck in all categories, but Booker's negatives put Harris over. Meanwhile, Klobuchar is still not well known but has less negatives than her peers.
As far as those who aren't running, the Register polled Dems and found Hillary (72%), Oprah, and Howard Schultz (both 55%) would detract from the race. 40% of Dems think Oprah would add to the race, and an amazing 25% think Hillary would add. Michelle Obama fares best of all (76% said would add, 22% said would distract).
It is shocking to me the Dems prefer a Seasoned Hand to a newcomer by a 49%-36% margin. I do like Warren, Sanders and Biden, but I hate to see the Dems become a party of 'next one up' which leads to Dole, McCain and Romney. Ronald Reagan was 73 in 1984. Sanders would be 79, Warren 71 and Biden 78 in 2020.
In any case, I have mentioned before these polls are useless. If you don't believe me, check 538's article on Edwards, Hillary and Giuliani (and nonstarters like Hart and Gore).
To wrap up, the greatest attribute the Dems are looking for is "A Person who will tell the truth, even if I don't agree" (93%) even more so someone who will restore relationships with longtime US allies (90%), a person with a strong moral compass (90%); or even a policy wonk (87%), a Uniter (89%) or someone who represents the future Democratic Party (81%)
A younger blogger me would have wrote posts about these visits, but let's be fair, there's a lot of candidates and a long ways to go. The Register lists 20 possible candidates, and that looks to be a good working number, but feels infinitely expanding. (I suspect 20 was arbitrarily selected as there is no Martin O'Malley, Terry McAullife, or Sheryl Sandberg to name but a few).
The Register last week ran a front page story about the 50 Most Influential Democrats in the states, which seemed rather pointless (particularly at this point in the cycle), but goes to show the Caucuses aren't just the Register's Super Bowl, it's the entire football season.
The Register Poll is the most respected barometer of the Presidential race, though like the weatherman's predictions, no one remembers what they said the day before, only what actually happened.
When we last met, I reported on Iowa StartingLine's poll, and the Register isn't that much different. Still, we have the addition of Bloomberg, the rise of Beto O'Rourke, and though it has little effect on the numbers, we have seen the end of Michael Avenatti's bid for the White House. I don't know that I would have ever supported Avenatti, but as a blogger, this feels like a big blow. An Avenatti campaign would have been tremendous.
So here we go. Who do Democrats want to be their candidate?
Joe Biden 32%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Beto O'Rourke 11%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Kamala Harris 5%
Cory Booker 4%
Michael Bloomberg 3%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Sherrod Brown 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Julian Castro 1%
John Delaney 1%
The results are a near mirror of the IowaStartingLine Poll, with Sanders having a significant gain to a comfortable second place. It also shows Biden with a nice sized lead, and introduces a few new contenders, and lost momentum for John Delaney and Kirsten Gillibrand.
Of course, the nature of the caucuses, it is important to poll both first choices and second choices. The Register reports this as an aggregate score, and in theory, should be as insightful as a straight preference poll.
Joe Biden 50%
Bernie Sanders 33%
Beto O'Rourke 23%
Elizabeth Warren 18%
Kamala Harris 11%
Cory Booker 11%
Michael Bloomberg 6%
Amy Klobuchar 5%
Sherrod Brown 3%
John Hickenlooper 2%
Julian Castro 1%
John Delaney 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Eric Holder 1%
Jay Inslee 1%
Tom Steyer 1%
Eric Swalwell 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
A three-tier field emerges now, but also some more obscure names also start to emerge. Is there a future star hiding in there?
Favorable ratings seem important in case this comes down to a head-to-head race. Four Democrats boast Favorable ratings of 50% or more
Joe Biden 82%
Bernie Sanders 74%
Elizabeth Warren 64%
Beto O'Rourke 53%
Those least favorable
Hillary Clinton 49%
Michael Blomberg 31%
Bernie Sanders 22%
Elizabeth Warren 20%
If you do Positive minus Negative
Biden +67%
Sanders +52%
Warren +44%
O'Rourke +42%
Harris +39%
Booker +37%
Klobuchar +30%
Gillibrand +29%
Holder +26%
Harris and Booker seem to be neck and neck in all categories, but Booker's negatives put Harris over. Meanwhile, Klobuchar is still not well known but has less negatives than her peers.
As far as those who aren't running, the Register polled Dems and found Hillary (72%), Oprah, and Howard Schultz (both 55%) would detract from the race. 40% of Dems think Oprah would add to the race, and an amazing 25% think Hillary would add. Michelle Obama fares best of all (76% said would add, 22% said would distract).
It is shocking to me the Dems prefer a Seasoned Hand to a newcomer by a 49%-36% margin. I do like Warren, Sanders and Biden, but I hate to see the Dems become a party of 'next one up' which leads to Dole, McCain and Romney. Ronald Reagan was 73 in 1984. Sanders would be 79, Warren 71 and Biden 78 in 2020.
In any case, I have mentioned before these polls are useless. If you don't believe me, check 538's article on Edwards, Hillary and Giuliani (and nonstarters like Hart and Gore).
To wrap up, the greatest attribute the Dems are looking for is "A Person who will tell the truth, even if I don't agree" (93%) even more so someone who will restore relationships with longtime US allies (90%), a person with a strong moral compass (90%); or even a policy wonk (87%), a Uniter (89%) or someone who represents the future Democratic Party (81%)
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