Help Us Uncle Joe, You are our only hope
I have blogged the last four elections, and there is no reason for me to sit this one out.
That said, time constraints have hampered me, and after doing this long enough, I don't want to write something that has already been said, and no doubt I am trying to be timely, but I can't be trusted for that.
So, you're going to get February, much like the month's winter weather, in a few short dense blasts.
For starters, everyone who was on the list of potential candidates is probably running. It usually doesn't work like that, and most will not make it that far, but that is our current state.
Bernie Sanders's announcement is a big one. I compare Bernie to Ron Paul, who has a loyal, committed audience. The Democrats have generally been the party for new blood. Obama, Clinton and Carter are examples of that, whereas Mondale, Hillary and Gore failed.
I don't know if Sanders will fall in that regard, or if he will have new life in his campaign. In any case, it's probably bad news for candidate Tulsi Gabbard and potential candidate Jeff Merkley who ostensibly were running for Sanders voters.
Kirsten Gillibrand made it to Iowa and made her announcement and participated in the Women's March, while the Register focused on the crowd's P*ssy Hats, and that she carried a notebook where she wrote down questions from Iowans- the voters interviewed seemed to be approving but non-committal.
Colorado Senator Michael Bennet (who thanks to the Super Bowl, isn't even the most famous person named Michael Bennett) made it to Iowa to sum up a possible run. It was enough to get some press in the Register.
In a crowded field, Bennet is making education his focus. Speaking in crowds of 75 and 60, he seemed to be well received. Universal childcare is part of his plan. He was Superintendent of the Denver Public School System, whose success he touts, before being named to the Senate. He was also Chief of Staff under former Governor John Hickenlooper (who is also likely running for President. Awkward!)
A name I haven't mentioned is Marianne Williamson. A friend of mine attended one of her events. Williamson has written 13 books about spirituality and was a prominent guest and friend of Oprah. In an election cycle, where anything is possible (even Oprah's name gets bandied about), I take Williamson seriously. Besides heading her own self-help guru empire, she is an activist for many liberal causes. I asked my friend if it was possible that she was interested in some Jill Stein maverick 3rd party movement, but he said she is very interested in change as part of the Democratic Party.
Long on names and visits, the 2020 campaign has been short on the type of anecdotes that I write about. For now, the biggest moment has been Elizabeth Warren's first day on the campaign trail back in January in Sioux City.
Warren, certainly on the shortlist of front runners, was asked the question we all were dying to know. Why did she take that DNA test and isn't that just encouraging Donald Trump to bully others. Warren said she was going to put everything out for the public, and that Trump is going to Trump, before moving on to a message about fighting for families.
Warren is very much in mind when looking at this month's Emerson College poll which pits her against Donald Trump.
The poll of Iowans one year before caucus shows Trump beating Warren 52-48%. This is not much different than Sanders who falls in a nearly 50/50 split to the President. It is also better than the other names paired- Beto O'Rourke and Kamala Harris, followed by Gillibrand, followed by Sherrod Brown and a hypothetical Nancy Pelosi.
It also brings to bear the spector of Howard Schultz. The CEO of Starbucks weighed in during January about a possible third party run, much to the consternation of Democrats everywhere.
A possible Trump-Warren-Schultz race falls at a 49-40-11 run, showing Schultz does draw considerably more from Democrats than he does from Trump.
Of course, the big news is that there is one name who beats Trump head-to-head and he seemingly is the only person not running. Joe Biden wins 51-49 in that head to head matchup.
Indeed, Biden has such a lead over Democrats, that a Biden-less race is surely wide open.
The preference poll of Dems looks like:
Biden 29%
Harris 18%
Sanders 15%
Warren 11%
O'Rourke 6%
Booker 4%
Brown 4%
Klobuchar 3%
Castro 2%
Delaney 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Still 8% with preferences elsewhere, so large shifts still possible.
86% of Democrats said they are looking for someone who will reach across the aisle to get things done- making this quality the top in that category.
Democrats had strong opinions on border security funding, a ban on assault weapons, Medicare for all, and an increase of the Minimum Wage to $15. All issues that ran counter to the"average Iowan".
Of interest, 33% of Iowans said that no one is ever "too old" to run for President, but 54% said that 70 is too old, which is interesting, given that Trump, Warren, Biden and Sanders are (or in the case of Warren, will be shortly) in their 70s. When broken out, the Dems skewed slightly more towards the younger candidates.
That said, time constraints have hampered me, and after doing this long enough, I don't want to write something that has already been said, and no doubt I am trying to be timely, but I can't be trusted for that.
So, you're going to get February, much like the month's winter weather, in a few short dense blasts.
For starters, everyone who was on the list of potential candidates is probably running. It usually doesn't work like that, and most will not make it that far, but that is our current state.
Bernie Sanders's announcement is a big one. I compare Bernie to Ron Paul, who has a loyal, committed audience. The Democrats have generally been the party for new blood. Obama, Clinton and Carter are examples of that, whereas Mondale, Hillary and Gore failed.
I don't know if Sanders will fall in that regard, or if he will have new life in his campaign. In any case, it's probably bad news for candidate Tulsi Gabbard and potential candidate Jeff Merkley who ostensibly were running for Sanders voters.
Kirsten Gillibrand made it to Iowa and made her announcement and participated in the Women's March, while the Register focused on the crowd's P*ssy Hats, and that she carried a notebook where she wrote down questions from Iowans- the voters interviewed seemed to be approving but non-committal.
Colorado Senator Michael Bennet (who thanks to the Super Bowl, isn't even the most famous person named Michael Bennett) made it to Iowa to sum up a possible run. It was enough to get some press in the Register.
In a crowded field, Bennet is making education his focus. Speaking in crowds of 75 and 60, he seemed to be well received. Universal childcare is part of his plan. He was Superintendent of the Denver Public School System, whose success he touts, before being named to the Senate. He was also Chief of Staff under former Governor John Hickenlooper (who is also likely running for President. Awkward!)
A name I haven't mentioned is Marianne Williamson. A friend of mine attended one of her events. Williamson has written 13 books about spirituality and was a prominent guest and friend of Oprah. In an election cycle, where anything is possible (even Oprah's name gets bandied about), I take Williamson seriously. Besides heading her own self-help guru empire, she is an activist for many liberal causes. I asked my friend if it was possible that she was interested in some Jill Stein maverick 3rd party movement, but he said she is very interested in change as part of the Democratic Party.
Long on names and visits, the 2020 campaign has been short on the type of anecdotes that I write about. For now, the biggest moment has been Elizabeth Warren's first day on the campaign trail back in January in Sioux City.
Warren, certainly on the shortlist of front runners, was asked the question we all were dying to know. Why did she take that DNA test and isn't that just encouraging Donald Trump to bully others. Warren said she was going to put everything out for the public, and that Trump is going to Trump, before moving on to a message about fighting for families.
Warren is very much in mind when looking at this month's Emerson College poll which pits her against Donald Trump.
The poll of Iowans one year before caucus shows Trump beating Warren 52-48%. This is not much different than Sanders who falls in a nearly 50/50 split to the President. It is also better than the other names paired- Beto O'Rourke and Kamala Harris, followed by Gillibrand, followed by Sherrod Brown and a hypothetical Nancy Pelosi.
It also brings to bear the spector of Howard Schultz. The CEO of Starbucks weighed in during January about a possible third party run, much to the consternation of Democrats everywhere.
A possible Trump-Warren-Schultz race falls at a 49-40-11 run, showing Schultz does draw considerably more from Democrats than he does from Trump.
Of course, the big news is that there is one name who beats Trump head-to-head and he seemingly is the only person not running. Joe Biden wins 51-49 in that head to head matchup.
Indeed, Biden has such a lead over Democrats, that a Biden-less race is surely wide open.
The preference poll of Dems looks like:
Biden 29%
Harris 18%
Sanders 15%
Warren 11%
O'Rourke 6%
Booker 4%
Brown 4%
Klobuchar 3%
Castro 2%
Delaney 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Still 8% with preferences elsewhere, so large shifts still possible.
86% of Democrats said they are looking for someone who will reach across the aisle to get things done- making this quality the top in that category.
Democrats had strong opinions on border security funding, a ban on assault weapons, Medicare for all, and an increase of the Minimum Wage to $15. All issues that ran counter to the"average Iowan".
Of interest, 33% of Iowans said that no one is ever "too old" to run for President, but 54% said that 70 is too old, which is interesting, given that Trump, Warren, Biden and Sanders are (or in the case of Warren, will be shortly) in their 70s. When broken out, the Dems skewed slightly more towards the younger candidates.
Comments
Post a Comment
Contact us