March Buzz
Too much going in my life and too much going on in the race to be of much value, but still I try. So here's a few takes.
Pete Buttigieg- See that's why I want to blog, because I saw Pete's star was about to rise and I would love to have documented that and tell everyone I was first. Three weeks ago, he visited Eastern Iowa, and it was clear from papers like the Iowa City Press-Citizen and the Cedar Rapids Gazette that he was connecting. His strength being as a mayor, he actually had been an administrator. It's a strength that may be an unexpected advantage. It is also clear that as a millennial, he is connecting across all sort of demographics. Also, he is a Midwesterner.
Since, I didn't get it down in print, let me just add, an Emerson College poll made worldwide news as Buttigieg finished in 3rd place in Iowa polling, behind stalwarts Biden and Sanders, inching out Kamala Harris. Buttgieg is the new Beto and I wish I had it on record that I was one of the first to see that coming.
Jay Inslee- I am not sure how much momentum the Washington Governor has, but I will give him credit for two things. 1) He has started to run TV ads, something I have only seen John Delaney do this cycle. Inslee needs name recognition in a crowded race. 2) He is running as a "climate" candidate. Again, crowded field. You have to give an angle for Iowans to remember you by. I can't jump to conclusions yet, but it's a good plan.
Cory Booker- Cory has hit local TV and quite simply, he is a rock star. I don't think any serious discussion should count him out. Of note, he was the first candidate to get an endorsement. In this case, Iowa City-area state legislator Amy Nielsen. Two friends of mine have seen him and the charisma is real. Cory made reference to his great great grandmother who moved from Alabama to Buxton, Iowa. Buxton was a coal mining town known for the way it treated black miners and thrived from 1900-1925. Buxton is an interesting lost history which Booker referenced- a variety of Eastern European, Western European and African heritages, community quilting bees, and when miners died, instead of attending the funerals, all would donate their wages to the mourning family. (Worth look at LostBuxton.comhttps://lostbuxton.com/ and Rachelle Case's Creating the Black Utopia book)
Julian Castro- Castro is touring the state and I have seen some buzz. His poll numbers have been minimal, but I could see him surge. He is one of five Dems headed to Northwest Iowa for an Ag Forum along with John Delaney, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren and Tim Ryan. I like that Castro is going to small town Iowa, and the press seems to show people are receptive. He seems to be well received by Latino democrats, as well as resonating with Medicare for All and Gun Control. Castro is a blip, but like Buttigieg, I look for him to explode.
Kamala Harris - Harris is still on my short list of candidates who matter. She gets the nod for the first candidate to have to cancel an event due to weather. This is no slight to Harris, as we had one of the worst winters in terms of both snow and wind chill than we have had in ages. Harris has been able to pick up an experienced staff and as setting up meetings to explain the complicated caucus process to young and new voters. I like that she is organized, and think she is essential in any conversation for the 2020.
Elizabeth Warren - Warren was put feet to fire to make an oath not to attack another Dem in this process. I am a big fan of Reagan's 11th commandment and glad to see that. Counterpoint: The 2008 Dem and 2016 GOP primaries were bloodbaths verbally, and they hardened their candidates to perfect oral competitors. The headlines of her trip this week were to abolish the Electoral College and that Joe Biden needs to address the allegations about inappropriate campaign behavior. Lost in that message was tough words for the corporate community including local stalwarts Wells Fargo who surely everyone in Iowa has an opinion about, though that opinion might be colored by their recent "Too Big to Fail" attitude and bumbling behaviors.
Bernie Sanders- Bernie made it to Iowa and his four appearances all led up with opening musical acts. Sanders famously appeared with Vampire Weekend four years ago and hit an attendance of near 5000 for that. The Sanders platform of 2016 (decried as it was) will undoubtedly be the platform of whoever the Dems run in 2020. Bernie's most recent swing took stabs at Big Agri-Business. It's an interesting play in Iowa where Ag is King. Specifically, he took aim at Smithfield as an example of CEOs making money off of someone else's hard work. He criticized the Monsanto-Bayer merger which takes over the seed corn market. I like Bernie's populist approach, though I don't know if farmers will embrace it en masse. Still, arguing that family farms are hurt by large factory farming and that 10% of farms get 77% of all subsidies is a good drum to beat,
Tulsi Gabbard- Ok, Tulsi isn't going to win, because Dems I know don't particularly like here, and her seemingly pro-Trump, anti-Mueller tweets this week won't move that needle. Still, she has made headlines and stayed in the press. The path I see to her based on her most famous stances (anti-war, anti-intervention, legalizing sex work, and decriminalizing marijuana) might be as a Libertarian. I am not the first to make the notion that she probably has more in common with Ron Paul than her potential nominee pals.
Seth Moulton- The campaign does not need another candidate, but he headed to Iowa this week. I heard him on Conservative local radio this week, and he more than held his own against a hostile audience. Moulton, a US Representative from Massachusetts served in the Marines, so he can poke against MAGA barbs. He was one of the Congressmen who opposed Nancy Pelosi being Speaker again and has made previous Iowa visits. I think he could be one to watch as Dems turn away from too-familiar faces.
Small (and not so Small) town Iowa- My town isn't a small one, but it has had 10 potential candidates visit here, and we are still a year out. Castro, Warren, Buttgieg, Marianne Williamson, Harris and Delaney visited, sometimes more than once while potential names like Tim Ryan, Tom Steyer, Jeff Merkley and Michael Bloomberg also appeared and Sanders surrogate (Future Star?) Caifornia congressman Ro Khanna. A Western Iowa town of 10,000 where I have Family has seen 7- Frequent travelers Williamson, Delaney, and Castro, but also, Eric Swalwell, Andrew Yang, John Hickenlooper and Steve Bullock have made it to the Red side of the state.
Spaghetti and Chilli - Iowa Starting Line covered this but while Republicans hit Pizza Ranch and motorcycle rides, Dems have their own fundraiser ideas. In this case, there were three big Dinner events in February which allowed some of the lesser known candidates to connect with Iowans, and help them against the big name appeal of Biden and Bernie. Amy Klobuchar and John Delaney were at two of these events, and though long shots, both will be rewarded by their Iowa work. Swalwell, Hickenlooper, Castro and Harris all made one of these events, which shows some recognition of the importance of the process. The rewards will remain to be seen.
Still, a lot of info to take in and each day is a new headline. I probably won't be able to be as timely as I like, and my insight may turn out to end up being more about gut and buzz. Still ,expect me to weigh in from time to time.
Pete Buttigieg- See that's why I want to blog, because I saw Pete's star was about to rise and I would love to have documented that and tell everyone I was first. Three weeks ago, he visited Eastern Iowa, and it was clear from papers like the Iowa City Press-Citizen and the Cedar Rapids Gazette that he was connecting. His strength being as a mayor, he actually had been an administrator. It's a strength that may be an unexpected advantage. It is also clear that as a millennial, he is connecting across all sort of demographics. Also, he is a Midwesterner.
Since, I didn't get it down in print, let me just add, an Emerson College poll made worldwide news as Buttigieg finished in 3rd place in Iowa polling, behind stalwarts Biden and Sanders, inching out Kamala Harris. Buttgieg is the new Beto and I wish I had it on record that I was one of the first to see that coming.
Jay Inslee- I am not sure how much momentum the Washington Governor has, but I will give him credit for two things. 1) He has started to run TV ads, something I have only seen John Delaney do this cycle. Inslee needs name recognition in a crowded race. 2) He is running as a "climate" candidate. Again, crowded field. You have to give an angle for Iowans to remember you by. I can't jump to conclusions yet, but it's a good plan.
Cory Booker- Cory has hit local TV and quite simply, he is a rock star. I don't think any serious discussion should count him out. Of note, he was the first candidate to get an endorsement. In this case, Iowa City-area state legislator Amy Nielsen. Two friends of mine have seen him and the charisma is real. Cory made reference to his great great grandmother who moved from Alabama to Buxton, Iowa. Buxton was a coal mining town known for the way it treated black miners and thrived from 1900-1925. Buxton is an interesting lost history which Booker referenced- a variety of Eastern European, Western European and African heritages, community quilting bees, and when miners died, instead of attending the funerals, all would donate their wages to the mourning family. (Worth look at LostBuxton.comhttps://lostbuxton.com/ and Rachelle Case's Creating the Black Utopia book)
Julian Castro- Castro is touring the state and I have seen some buzz. His poll numbers have been minimal, but I could see him surge. He is one of five Dems headed to Northwest Iowa for an Ag Forum along with John Delaney, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren and Tim Ryan. I like that Castro is going to small town Iowa, and the press seems to show people are receptive. He seems to be well received by Latino democrats, as well as resonating with Medicare for All and Gun Control. Castro is a blip, but like Buttigieg, I look for him to explode.
Kamala Harris - Harris is still on my short list of candidates who matter. She gets the nod for the first candidate to have to cancel an event due to weather. This is no slight to Harris, as we had one of the worst winters in terms of both snow and wind chill than we have had in ages. Harris has been able to pick up an experienced staff and as setting up meetings to explain the complicated caucus process to young and new voters. I like that she is organized, and think she is essential in any conversation for the 2020.
Elizabeth Warren - Warren was put feet to fire to make an oath not to attack another Dem in this process. I am a big fan of Reagan's 11th commandment and glad to see that. Counterpoint: The 2008 Dem and 2016 GOP primaries were bloodbaths verbally, and they hardened their candidates to perfect oral competitors. The headlines of her trip this week were to abolish the Electoral College and that Joe Biden needs to address the allegations about inappropriate campaign behavior. Lost in that message was tough words for the corporate community including local stalwarts Wells Fargo who surely everyone in Iowa has an opinion about, though that opinion might be colored by their recent "Too Big to Fail" attitude and bumbling behaviors.
Bernie Sanders- Bernie made it to Iowa and his four appearances all led up with opening musical acts. Sanders famously appeared with Vampire Weekend four years ago and hit an attendance of near 5000 for that. The Sanders platform of 2016 (decried as it was) will undoubtedly be the platform of whoever the Dems run in 2020. Bernie's most recent swing took stabs at Big Agri-Business. It's an interesting play in Iowa where Ag is King. Specifically, he took aim at Smithfield as an example of CEOs making money off of someone else's hard work. He criticized the Monsanto-Bayer merger which takes over the seed corn market. I like Bernie's populist approach, though I don't know if farmers will embrace it en masse. Still, arguing that family farms are hurt by large factory farming and that 10% of farms get 77% of all subsidies is a good drum to beat,
Tulsi Gabbard- Ok, Tulsi isn't going to win, because Dems I know don't particularly like here, and her seemingly pro-Trump, anti-Mueller tweets this week won't move that needle. Still, she has made headlines and stayed in the press. The path I see to her based on her most famous stances (anti-war, anti-intervention, legalizing sex work, and decriminalizing marijuana) might be as a Libertarian. I am not the first to make the notion that she probably has more in common with Ron Paul than her potential nominee pals.
Seth Moulton- The campaign does not need another candidate, but he headed to Iowa this week. I heard him on Conservative local radio this week, and he more than held his own against a hostile audience. Moulton, a US Representative from Massachusetts served in the Marines, so he can poke against MAGA barbs. He was one of the Congressmen who opposed Nancy Pelosi being Speaker again and has made previous Iowa visits. I think he could be one to watch as Dems turn away from too-familiar faces.
Small (and not so Small) town Iowa- My town isn't a small one, but it has had 10 potential candidates visit here, and we are still a year out. Castro, Warren, Buttgieg, Marianne Williamson, Harris and Delaney visited, sometimes more than once while potential names like Tim Ryan, Tom Steyer, Jeff Merkley and Michael Bloomberg also appeared and Sanders surrogate (Future Star?) Caifornia congressman Ro Khanna. A Western Iowa town of 10,000 where I have Family has seen 7- Frequent travelers Williamson, Delaney, and Castro, but also, Eric Swalwell, Andrew Yang, John Hickenlooper and Steve Bullock have made it to the Red side of the state.
Spaghetti and Chilli - Iowa Starting Line covered this but while Republicans hit Pizza Ranch and motorcycle rides, Dems have their own fundraiser ideas. In this case, there were three big Dinner events in February which allowed some of the lesser known candidates to connect with Iowans, and help them against the big name appeal of Biden and Bernie. Amy Klobuchar and John Delaney were at two of these events, and though long shots, both will be rewarded by their Iowa work. Swalwell, Hickenlooper, Castro and Harris all made one of these events, which shows some recognition of the importance of the process. The rewards will remain to be seen.
Still, a lot of info to take in and each day is a new headline. I probably won't be able to be as timely as I like, and my insight may turn out to end up being more about gut and buzz. Still ,expect me to weigh in from time to time.
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