Iowa Caucus Guy’s Presidential Election Blog

2024 might be the end of the "First in the nation" Iowa caucuses. At least for the Democrats anyway. Over the years I’ve written in different places to different people about the caucuses. Whether I think Iowa should go first is moot, But I find the Caucuses so interesting. I grew up in the 80s and I remember watching the news about the Iowa caucuses and it was as interesting as sports to me. There were about a bunch of unusual names like Bruce Babbitt, Pete DuPont, Al Haig, Dick Gephardt, Ruben Askew, and Ernst Hollings. Caucuses are the fun part of the political process. Let’s face it politics sucks but a candidate running for election is the greatest thing. The future is wide open, dreams are shared and promises are made. No wonder Donald Trump never stopped running for president. The 2020 caucus had the inevitability of feeling doomed. Maybe it was when the final Des Moines Register poll was canceled with the news that not every candidate was being included. It might’...

This post is awhile in the making. I had it planned in December and the events of January 6 and everything else only seem to make it more relevant. So here’s my coda to the 2020 election. The question that bugs me as armchair pundit is this: Why didn’t Trump govern from the middle? I tend to think that he could have and would have won a decisive re-election. I don’t even know that he had to ‘do’ anything differently, but change his rhetoric. I will always recall Trump on the local radio on the night of the 2016 Caucus. He had a very broad pitch which keyed mainly on a big infrastructure package (Remember at that time, Cruz was running to the right of him) Of course, Reagan angered many on the left, but his rhetoric was always to all Americans. As someone with as much screen time as Trump, I’m surprised he didn’t learn this lesson. I also can’t move past a discussion on Trump without mentioning “2000 Trump”. QAnon fixates on the idea of JFK Junior praising Trump, but that was an entirel...

As I wrap up my 2020 Election thoughts, I thought I would focus this post on the Democratic candidate.  Meme Biden is the Best Biden We have had some close elections in the last 20 years and it is easy to second guess things. This year, the press did just that - shifting from ‘what Biden could have done to win’ to ‘what Trump could have done to win’- in a matter of a week.  I see three scenarios for the Democrats and I can’t claim to be an expert, but this is how I see it. One of the most striking moments of the year was the senior couple who left the Caucus I was at in an angry state. They claimed to anyone who would listen that if Joe Biden wasn’t the nominee, they would vote for Donald Trump. This seemed incongruous to me. If Biden wasn’t your first choice, you would think they would still surely vote for Elizabeth Warren or Pete Buttigieg before voting for Trump.  I can only guess at their motivation and I hesitate to just say “OK Boomer, vote for the heterosexual ...

The election may or may not be over depending on who you talk to, but people on all sides for the most part are ready to put this thing to bed.  Even as much as I love this stuff, I am ready to put this bed to. 2020 was a good reminder to me that while Presidential elections are sexy, local elections are often much more impactful in our lives. Despite Democrats’ best wishes (as well conversely for the other side) there were no great revelations. Texas was never in play. There was no ‘blue wave’ nor a ‘red wave’.  The story inevitably is Arizona and Georgia flipping from Red to Blue. Georgia going Democratic for the first time since 1992. Arizona going Blue for only the second time (1996) since Truman was in the White House. As an Iowan who generally leans left, the Hawkeye state provides an interesting case. At six electoral votes, Iowa has seemingly been inconsequential, but with a reputation as a ‘purple’ state offers enough of a potential swing that Obama brought Bruce Sp...

It all comes down to this.  37 months ago, John Delaney kicked off a campaign that posited that a Moderate Democrat could be the next President. Three years after ridicule of John’s quixotic run and promises of free college, free healthcare and Universal Basic Income, the next President may end up being a moderate Democrat. Mike Pence made one last trip to Des Moines on Friday afternoon with an agenda of Faith and Jobs (covered separately, I presume). The liberal Progress Iowa once again came through with a billboard for the occasion. This time proclaiming “Just one night of unprotected Pence can cause COVID."  Of course, one of the headlines of this cycle was two nights before, 135 miles away in Omaha. The headlines read that thousands of people (many seniors) were stranded for hours waiting for a bus to get them back to their cars. Many had waited hours prior to the rally and now unexpectedly were waiting in 32 degree weather.  You might expect me to be critical here, ...

Celebrities have always been a part of politics. I am grateful that I have got to see musicians and actors in person that I otherwise might not have seen. But I know that for me, I’m never going to vote for someone because a celebrity told me. Ok, maybe Lynda Carter. I know people don’t care what celebrities think, because Conservatives post it all the time on social media. It is usually posted on a timeline between shares of “Watch James Woods own this interviewer” and “The shocking thing Rob Schneider just revealed”. Indeed, it’s often hard to see where celebrity endorsements end and quotes added to a picture begin. For many years, Sam Elliott’s picture has been used as the poster boy of no-nonsense no-BS plain speaking. I wonder how many people who have posted quotes attributed to Sam really know he’s riding with Biden  (or if you want to be specific like Snopes, he didn't publicl endorse, but he did lend his voice for a Biden campaign ad ). Some of the most surprising Celebrity...

This certainly feels like the most contentious election of my lifetime but things seemingly have always been worse (1960s. 1860s). This being an election where campaigning largely takes place online- there should be some mention of that aspect. In which case, I have mentioned the Lincoln Project before but it bears repeating. The group of former Republican operatives headed by George Conway have heckled Trump at every turn. While the Democrats took down all of their negative online ads when the President was diagnosed with COVID, the Lincoln Project took to calling him “Covita”. Clearly they also have an ad of Bo, Sunny, Barney, Millie, Buddy, Rex, Grits, Liberty, Checkers and other bipartisan canines over the last several decades while noting Trump claims “not to be a dog person”. (Trump is the first President since James Polk in 1849 without a Presidential pet.) In Iowa, this has the feel of a close race. There’s a conventional wisdom in the polls that it’s a dead heat with a lean to...