The Official IowaCaucusGuy Poll

This certainly feels like the most contentious election of my lifetime but things seemingly have always been worse (1960s. 1860s).

This being an election where campaigning largely takes place online- there should be some mention of that aspect. In which case, I have mentioned the Lincoln Project before but it bears repeating. The group of former Republican operatives headed by George Conway have heckled Trump at every turn.

While the Democrats took down all of their negative online ads when the President was diagnosed with COVID, the Lincoln Project took to calling him “Covita”. Clearly they also have an ad of Bo, Sunny, Barney, Millie, Buddy, Rex, Grits, Liberty, Checkers and other bipartisan canines over the last several decades while noting Trump claims “not to be a dog person”. (Trump is the first President since James Polk in 1849 without a Presidential pet.)

In Iowa, this has the feel of a close race. There’s a conventional wisdom in the polls that it’s a dead heat with a lean towards a Biden victory, a Democratic steak of a Senate Seat and a firm hold on the current 3-1 seats in the US House.

A simple gut check feels like it will be a close. I didn’t subscribe to a Hillary win in 2016. I knew it was going to be a toss up. Hillary never connected to the Hawkeye State, and could have maybe redeemed herself with an “It’s the Economy, Stupid” message which never came.

Biden was a clunker in this primary as he was 12 years ago in 2008. However, he hits a moderate posit that resonates with the populace scared by the left and right.

A composite of October polls show Biden a fraction ahead, but at least one of those polls puts Trump up by 2.

Locally, social media is lit up with tales of political yard signs being stolen and vandalized.

This one takes the cake though. I wonder what Mike Pence would say! Then again, perhaps if the Republican ticket was Trump-Pence in 2016, perhaps it’s not wrong that the 2020 ticket is Trump and more Trump.

I won’t jump into any conclusions that it’s nothing more than a few bad apples. Still, it’s certainly more than I have seen in recent memory.

This past winter, I did do my own yard sign poll prior to the Democratic caucus. It was horribly unscientific and yet strangely accurate. Indeed, my poll got Biden and Buttigieg support measured better than a lot of the big guys who whiffed on those two.

So without further ado. Here are my poll results:

Donald Trump 66%
Joe Biden 34%.

So what does that mean? Perhaps nothing but it does show a devotion to the Republican candidate. That isn’t anything new, of course- but is unusual. It’s not unusual to see houses wave Trump flags- houses that may not otherwise have other flags. Trump is a force of personality. Supporters gather in parades, the likes that would seem ridiculous for a George Bush or John McCain.

This certainly creates an interesting conversation around whether the Republicans can find another personality like Trump anytime soon. Tea party favorites that come to mind either lack the swagger (Trey Gowdy, Ted Cruz), or are footnotes (Allen West, Joe Walsh, Michele Bachman) and while the various family members share the name, they don’t have the charisma.

As far as the poll, though, yeah, I thought the Trump percentage number might be even higher.

In any case, threads indicate that there were shortages of Biden signs in a distribution challenged pandemic; reports of sign theft and vandalism appear on social media weekly (if not daily); and
well, I never said you could trust my poll.

The big ‘however’ is I think my poll does mean something. While the Grateful Dead may not be the biggest band ever, you will certainly see more Dead t-shirts than just anyone else. Donald Trump has a devoted following and his crowd is going to show up for him. That had nothing to say about numbers (Bernie Sanders and Ron Paul had devoted followings too and never made it to the nomination) and a firm vote for Trump is equal to a half hearted vote for Biden, the last I knew.