Iowa 2020 Election Post Mortem - Part II

As I wrap up my 2020 Election thoughts, I thought I would focus this post on the Democratic candidate. 

Meme Biden is the Best Biden

We have had some close elections in the last 20 years and it is easy to second guess things. This year, the press did just that - shifting from ‘what Biden could have done to win’ to ‘what Trump could have done to win’- in a matter of a week. 

I see three scenarios for the Democrats and I can’t claim to be an expert, but this is how I see it. One of the most striking moments of the year was the senior couple who left the Caucus I was at in an angry state. They claimed to anyone who would listen that if Joe Biden wasn’t the nominee, they would vote for Donald Trump. This seemed incongruous to me. If Biden wasn’t your first choice, you would think they would still surely vote for Elizabeth Warren or Pete Buttigieg before voting for Trump. 

I can only guess at their motivation and I hesitate to just say “OK Boomer, vote for the heterosexual white male candidate’. 

No, I think I know where they are coming from, because I don’t think they are much different from my father. It may not even be an age thing. 

There is a fear that the Democratic Party is going too far left. While progressives don’t see the appeal of Mike Bloomberg, there clearly was a crowd that was attracted to him. He polled up to 18% in National polls and in red states specifically, that number often went up over 20 percent. 

There clearly is still a crowd in the party that isn’t ready for a Progressive. They want Affordable College, not Free College. They know the medical insurance industry needs reformed, but may not know what that looks like. They may be hunters or gun owners who don’t agree with the Party stance on gun control. Heck, there may be even Pro-Life Democrats. 

I have no idea how the Dems can get Conservative Democrats back. An obvious thought is finding someone who can speak to that crowd, but candidates in that mold like Steve Bullock or Jim Webb can’t even seem to get out of the starting gate. 

Have the Dems gone too far to the Left? 

This election I saw some independent and Libertarian friends vote for Trump in fear of electing Biden. 

Can the Dems find another Biden in the pipeline or are they doomed to another succession of McGoverns and Dukakises? 

Which brings me to Point Two.  

Maybe the Dems aren’t nominating someone Progressive enough. Many Dems this year decided that they would rally around the candidate- whoever that may be. 

Friends of mine who had voted for Jill Stein four years ago, Bernie Bros and other left leaning independents voted Biden without a second thought just to get Trump out. 

Silly Trump. He doubled down on being the most polarizing candidate of our time. If he could have at least played at being a centrist, the Dems would have probably self imploded and scattered. 

So why run a lukewarm John Kerry or Hillary Clinton candidate just to placate a group of people who probably aren’t going to change their vote anyway. Would Bernie Sanders done any worse than Biden? Would he have pulled off 2016 what Hillary could not do? I think it’s possible he would have. 

In which I suggest, Option 3. You can guess at people’s motivation to vote all day and you will never figure it out. Sure, it would be great if you could predict that everyone had the same motivations and drives and thought processes, but they don’t.  

One thing that stayed with me this election was my right-leaning friends who didn’t vote for Biden, but said they would have considered voting for a Democrat with some Libertarian tendencies like Pete Buttigieg or Tulsi Gabbard. I even saw some interest in Andrew Yang who had some disruptive ideas. 

So they didn’t vote for Biden, nor would they likely have voted for Sanders, but still might have voted for a Democratic candidate. Who are speaking to the group that PJ O’Rourke calls the “Far Middle”?

The candidate who does that may be the one who does best in the future. I think a good case can be made that the last four presidents (and probably beyond) were candidates who could do that. Even if Trump focused on his base in 2020, his success in 2016 was getting a bigger coalition. Which means in my next post, I should focus on 45. 

But back to the Dems, are their pragmatic candidates that can appeal to voters of both parties? As voters begin to classify themselves as Libertarians, are there left-leaning candidates who at least going to be more in line on many of those issues than the Republican counterpart. 

So don’t let the pundits trick you. I’ve known people who voted for Dubya then Obama. People who voted Obama then Trump. Charisma. We all know some single - issue voters. They will always exist. 

Heck, you might know people who voted for Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders. I do. Challenge the Status Quo. Opposed to government handouts to millionaires. Limited government policies towards drugs, surveillance, law enforcement and the definition of marriage. Limited involvement in foreign countries.  

So how can pundits reconcile such eccentricities in human nature. They can’t. Which of course, is why we have the election, and so much post- Election Day second guessing; and as long as that is the case, I will be here.