Iowa Caucus Guy’s Presidential Election Blog

As I wrap up my 2020 Election thoughts, I thought I would focus this post on the Democratic candidate.  Meme Biden is the Best Biden We have had some close elections in the last 20 years and it is easy to second guess things. This year, the press did just that - shifting from ‘what Biden could have done to win’ to ‘what Trump could have done to win’- in a matter of a week.  I see three scenarios for the Democrats and I can’t claim to be an expert, but this is how I see it. One of the most striking moments of the year was the senior couple who left the Caucus I was at in an angry state. They claimed to anyone who would listen that if Joe Biden wasn’t the nominee, they would vote for Donald Trump. This seemed incongruous to me. If Biden wasn’t your first choice, you would think they would still surely vote for Elizabeth Warren or Pete Buttigieg before voting for Trump.  I can only guess at their motivation and I hesitate to just say “OK Boomer, vote for the heterosexual ...

The election may or may not be over depending on who you talk to, but people on all sides for the most part are ready to put this thing to bed.  Even as much as I love this stuff, I am ready to put this bed to. 2020 was a good reminder to me that while Presidential elections are sexy, local elections are often much more impactful in our lives. Despite Democrats’ best wishes (as well conversely for the other side) there were no great revelations. Texas was never in play. There was no ‘blue wave’ nor a ‘red wave’.  The story inevitably is Arizona and Georgia flipping from Red to Blue. Georgia going Democratic for the first time since 1992. Arizona going Blue for only the second time (1996) since Truman was in the White House. As an Iowan who generally leans left, the Hawkeye state provides an interesting case. At six electoral votes, Iowa has seemingly been inconsequential, but with a reputation as a ‘purple’ state offers enough of a potential swing that Obama brought Bruce Sp...

It all comes down to this.  37 months ago, John Delaney kicked off a campaign that posited that a Moderate Democrat could be the next President. Three years after ridicule of John’s quixotic run and promises of free college, free healthcare and Universal Basic Income, the next President may end up being a moderate Democrat. Mike Pence made one last trip to Des Moines on Friday afternoon with an agenda of Faith and Jobs (covered separately, I presume). The liberal Progress Iowa once again came through with a billboard for the occasion. This time proclaiming “Just one night of unprotected Pence can cause COVID."  Of course, one of the headlines of this cycle was two nights before, 135 miles away in Omaha. The headlines read that thousands of people (many seniors) were stranded for hours waiting for a bus to get them back to their cars. Many had waited hours prior to the rally and now unexpectedly were waiting in 32 degree weather.  You might expect me to be critical here, ...

Celebrities have always been a part of politics. I am grateful that I have got to see musicians and actors in person that I otherwise might not have seen. But I know that for me, I’m never going to vote for someone because a celebrity told me. Ok, maybe Lynda Carter. I know people don’t care what celebrities think, because Conservatives post it all the time on social media. It is usually posted on a timeline between shares of “Watch James Woods own this interviewer” and “The shocking thing Rob Schneider just revealed”. Indeed, it’s often hard to see where celebrity endorsements end and quotes added to a picture begin. For many years, Sam Elliott’s picture has been used as the poster boy of no-nonsense no-BS plain speaking. I wonder how many people who have posted quotes attributed to Sam really know he’s riding with Biden  (or if you want to be specific like Snopes, he didn't publicl endorse, but he did lend his voice for a Biden campaign ad ). Some of the most surprising Celebrity...

This certainly feels like the most contentious election of my lifetime but things seemingly have always been worse (1960s. 1860s). This being an election where campaigning largely takes place online- there should be some mention of that aspect. In which case, I have mentioned the Lincoln Project before but it bears repeating. The group of former Republican operatives headed by George Conway have heckled Trump at every turn. While the Democrats took down all of their negative online ads when the President was diagnosed with COVID, the Lincoln Project took to calling him “Covita”. Clearly they also have an ad of Bo, Sunny, Barney, Millie, Buddy, Rex, Grits, Liberty, Checkers and other bipartisan canines over the last several decades while noting Trump claims “not to be a dog person”. (Trump is the first President since James Polk in 1849 without a Presidential pet.) In Iowa, this has the feel of a close race. There’s a conventional wisdom in the polls that it’s a dead heat with a lean to...

  Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a result of 51-41 (Yes, Independents and Third Party candidates were popular in 2016- getting anywhere between 4-10% in every county in the state).  Iowa was not going to be a battleground state. While some former solid red states like Texas might be in play, Iowa surely was so firmly red that both parties could mark it off their list.  But that does not appear to be the case, and it’s probably why Mike Pence has been to the state five times in ten months, and this week, Donald Trump made a post-Covid stop.  The big news was the sign (not that far away from Iowa Democratic Party headquarters if we’re being honest) referencing the rally as The Trump Covid Superspreader Event.  Was it?    Well, I know people who went and to take it a step further, a high risk person.     I will definitely have an answer.  The truth is it kind of touched me. Although I would rank my support for Trump last ...

 With the recent Vice Presidential debate, as well as the President's COVID diagnosis, I thought it worthwhile to revisit a book that came out around this time last year called Piety and Power .  Tom LoBianco has followed Mike Pence as long as any journalist on the planet.  He is about as much of an expert on Pence as one will find. Since Pence did not appear much in Michael Wolff's treatment of Jarvanka and Bannon in Fire and Fury, one may wonder his role.  This book does much in providing that insight, and more importantly, the VP's background. The title is well selected.  Pence's religious conviction is a real thing.  Some of the things we saw this week in the debate are apparent from this reading of Pence.  He does have charisma and plays the role of politician quite well. On the other hand, he has a great deal of ambition, and it would seem his ultimate goal is the White House.  My reading of this is that he has sometimes chosen inaction as a...