We Need to Talk About Joe
With a week like this, the Joe Biden campaign looks to be in trouble.
I won't say that I am terribly surprised, as many of the local Democrats that I talk to have been reflecting that as well. Later in this post, I can get into those whys.
Biden still leads the National polls. It can be said fairly confidently that even in the last month, he has had up to 35% of National Democrats. Not only that, for the most part, he is comfortably ahead of second place which is either Sanders or Warren, depending on the poll.
Yet, we know, it's not a National vote. We may also agree that winning Iowa does not guarantee anything, but we do agree that with the early states, momentum shifts.
I can't help but think of 2008.
At this exact time, Rudy Guillani led National polls with similar numbers. He would spend the next month neck and neck with Mike Huckabee nationally, and then quite suddenly, faded.
I thought of 2004, too, but that's a bit longer back, so I had to go back and check the numbers. Sure enough, Howard Dean was ahead nationally (and in fact would even climb higher closer to Christmas), while it looked like the only person who might catch him was Dick Gephardt. John Kerry was a stable (if not necessarily close) third.
For me, I don't see the ground game here for Biden as I do with Warren and Buttigieg (and Sanders supporters are a different beast entirely, I know they will turn out too). Not that Biden doesn't have the name recognition, and won't draw, but his presence seems lacking.
Interestingly, the nine assorted Iowa polls that have been taken since October 18, do not make a rosy picture. While Biden hasn't led the polls since Day 1, he has always had solid report. In three of these nine recent polls, he is now 15% (I choose that number since it is what is often used as a "viability" line). In another three, he is right at 15%.
Now, it's a jumble, of course, and I think if you stick to the polls that Nate Silver trusts best, he is probably reasonably tied with Warren for second. He's probably around 17%, but the matter of the fact is that there are some polls that show him as low as 12%.
His late November fundraising emails read like a Ship taking Water.
"Three other Democratic candidates are outspending us in Iowa... and they're seeing a corresponding boost in the latest Iowa polls".
"Our fundraising has slowed... We're trailing behind where we were at this point in October"
"Please don't ignore (us)... we have less cash-on hand than our opponents... we are still 22,000 donations short of ... goal"
"We fell behind last night... now we're in jeopardy of not hitting our...goal"
"Missing goal by 10%... (may) have to slash our early state budget."
"Our fundraising numbers... aren't looking good"
I am not even kidding. See.....
While the panic of Biden giving up the lead may have loosened some wallets, I wonder how many saw those emails and thought it was time to consider alternatives.
In any case, it was a rough week. While Biden did pick up a major endorsement this week, I would be afraid of the image a John Kerry backing might bring at this point in time. Former Governor Tom Vilsack and former Iowa First Christie Vilsack's endorsements may carry more weight, but it's a tough counterpoint to a week where three Obama Administration officials endorsed Buttigieg.
Of course, polling and endorsements are really only things hardcore politicos like myself care about.
What really stood out for everyone, was that Biden happened to choose now (at a particular time where the 'Okay Boomer' meme is exploding) to launch his "No Malarkey" Bus Tour.
It goes to show how tone deaf Joe Biden has gotten, that this was ever launched.
At worst, it evokes images of Joe Lieberman's Joementum quote from 2004. It's cheesy and laughable. While the author surely thinks it's clever, he is the only one in the room that does not think it a joke.
At best, it might remind people (like the LA TImes) of John McCain's Straight Talk Express. That bus trip comparison draws to mind a campaign that was aging, distant, and inevitably, a loser.
While in a post-Trump, post-HBO/Howard Stern/Reality TV era, I prefer it to Beto O'Rourke's F-Word Bravado; it's not clever. It's not even Cory Booker "Dagnabbit" cute. It just shows Biden to be someone who probably doesn't have a cultural reference point after 1970.
That should have been the low point of his week, but as Biden has a lot of detractors from the Right and the Left, he should have expected to meet resistance.
Approaching a random diner in Steve King country, it wasn't so much he was dissed, it was that he was dissed hilariously and the media captured it all.
"I ask the guy if he just wasn’t a fan of Biden’s and he says 'who?' I say the former VP. The man, who farms in the Missouri Valley says he’s never heard of Joe Biden." The farmer then learned that Biden had been vice president under President Barack Obama. "Are you serious?” he said. "Ohhhhh. I’m not an Obama fan. This is Republican country."
Now, this is the perfect metaphor for Iowa, where Presidential candidates file in whether Iowans want them to or not.
The image surely does not help Biden. It reminds me a bit of Nightmare at 20,000 Feet, to be honest.
Yet, even that wasn't the low point of his week.
Four days later, the media had a field day with titles like Joe Biden Challenges Iowa Voter To Push-Up Contest, May Have Called Him Fat.
NBC News properly gave it context. He may have said "Facts", not "Fat". The person challenging him was a Warren supporter with no intention of ever voting for Biden. The room was on Biden's side.
Still, that quote hangs in the air.
You want to check my shape? Let’s do push-ups, man, let’s run, let’s do whatever you want to do ... let’s take an IQ test.’
Biden would defend his comments the next day as "kidding" and "joking." Interviewed on NPR on Friday and hitting the internet a few hours ago (as I write this), Biden was asked about the moment that he called an 83-year old Northeastern Iowa farmer "a damned liar"
I just pointed out, 'You're a liar.' It's, it's a fact. He lied, period. And so, you know, maybe I shouldn't have kidded with him about that."
"He said, 'You're too old. I can't vote for somebody as old as you.' I said 'OK'." Biden said. "And he was challenging me what kind of shape, and so I kidded. I said, 'Want to do a pushup contest?' I was joking."
"Donald Trump, he makes fun of people. He belittles people. He lies. I don't do any of those things. Period."
Yes, he was a heckler. But, if you are going to put yourself out like that, you might have a "Corporations are People" moment. More credit to Biden for not limiting audiences like Trump, or even pass on coming to the state at all, like Giuliani and Bloomberg. Still, you have to be prepared for that. Pete Buttigieg has been on the campaign trail and has run into bloggers and crazy perennial candidate Randall Terry, and that's unlikely to ever stop.
The trouble is that these images are sticking. Well-intentioned or.... I am not sure quite what... those on the other side had a field day with this campaign stop from the past Saturday where Biden seems to be munching on his wife's fingers.
At the very (very) least, Joe can't do that and not expect it not to be fuel for the other side (which in fact, it totally did).
Out of context or accidental (like surely the "Keep Punching" Domestic Violence" quote from the debate of two weeks ago was), the long story has always been that Biden is a gaffe-machine, but at this rate, Trump is going to bury him.
I am not saying that if you are under 45 and running an outsider campaign, that spraying supporters in the mouth with Whipped Cream while they get down on their knees, at a Campaign Office Opening, is a better look.
Still, Biden has a long history of embarrassing and cringeworthy moments.
Before this Election, Biden's most memorable Iowa moment was his creepy shoulder rubs......
and a 5th place finish in 2008. Biden never topped (a liberal) 8% in polling, and his Iowa 2008 results were so disappointing (less than even 1% of delegates) that Biden didn't even make it to New Hampshire.
All of that came up in discussions that I were having with local Dems back in May, when National polls had him at 40% or even higher.
So, I won't say I am surprised, but it was as bad of a week I think as anyone has ever had in Iowa than I can remember.
I won't say that I am terribly surprised, as many of the local Democrats that I talk to have been reflecting that as well. Later in this post, I can get into those whys.
Biden still leads the National polls. It can be said fairly confidently that even in the last month, he has had up to 35% of National Democrats. Not only that, for the most part, he is comfortably ahead of second place which is either Sanders or Warren, depending on the poll.
Yet, we know, it's not a National vote. We may also agree that winning Iowa does not guarantee anything, but we do agree that with the early states, momentum shifts.
I can't help but think of 2008.
At this exact time, Rudy Guillani led National polls with similar numbers. He would spend the next month neck and neck with Mike Huckabee nationally, and then quite suddenly, faded.
I thought of 2004, too, but that's a bit longer back, so I had to go back and check the numbers. Sure enough, Howard Dean was ahead nationally (and in fact would even climb higher closer to Christmas), while it looked like the only person who might catch him was Dick Gephardt. John Kerry was a stable (if not necessarily close) third.
For me, I don't see the ground game here for Biden as I do with Warren and Buttigieg (and Sanders supporters are a different beast entirely, I know they will turn out too). Not that Biden doesn't have the name recognition, and won't draw, but his presence seems lacking.
Interestingly, the nine assorted Iowa polls that have been taken since October 18, do not make a rosy picture. While Biden hasn't led the polls since Day 1, he has always had solid report. In three of these nine recent polls, he is now 15% (I choose that number since it is what is often used as a "viability" line). In another three, he is right at 15%.
Now, it's a jumble, of course, and I think if you stick to the polls that Nate Silver trusts best, he is probably reasonably tied with Warren for second. He's probably around 17%, but the matter of the fact is that there are some polls that show him as low as 12%.
His late November fundraising emails read like a Ship taking Water.
"Three other Democratic candidates are outspending us in Iowa... and they're seeing a corresponding boost in the latest Iowa polls".
"Our fundraising has slowed... We're trailing behind where we were at this point in October"
"Please don't ignore (us)... we have less cash-on hand than our opponents... we are still 22,000 donations short of ... goal"
"We fell behind last night... now we're in jeopardy of not hitting our...goal"
"Missing goal by 10%... (may) have to slash our early state budget."
"Our fundraising numbers... aren't looking good"
I am not even kidding. See.....
While the panic of Biden giving up the lead may have loosened some wallets, I wonder how many saw those emails and thought it was time to consider alternatives.
In any case, it was a rough week. While Biden did pick up a major endorsement this week, I would be afraid of the image a John Kerry backing might bring at this point in time. Former Governor Tom Vilsack and former Iowa First Christie Vilsack's endorsements may carry more weight, but it's a tough counterpoint to a week where three Obama Administration officials endorsed Buttigieg.
Of course, polling and endorsements are really only things hardcore politicos like myself care about.
What really stood out for everyone, was that Biden happened to choose now (at a particular time where the 'Okay Boomer' meme is exploding) to launch his "No Malarkey" Bus Tour.
It goes to show how tone deaf Joe Biden has gotten, that this was ever launched.
At worst, it evokes images of Joe Lieberman's Joementum quote from 2004. It's cheesy and laughable. While the author surely thinks it's clever, he is the only one in the room that does not think it a joke.
At best, it might remind people (like the LA TImes) of John McCain's Straight Talk Express. That bus trip comparison draws to mind a campaign that was aging, distant, and inevitably, a loser.
While in a post-Trump, post-HBO/Howard Stern/Reality TV era, I prefer it to Beto O'Rourke's F-Word Bravado; it's not clever. It's not even Cory Booker "Dagnabbit" cute. It just shows Biden to be someone who probably doesn't have a cultural reference point after 1970.
That should have been the low point of his week, but as Biden has a lot of detractors from the Right and the Left, he should have expected to meet resistance.
Approaching a random diner in Steve King country, it wasn't so much he was dissed, it was that he was dissed hilariously and the media captured it all.
"I ask the guy if he just wasn’t a fan of Biden’s and he says 'who?' I say the former VP. The man, who farms in the Missouri Valley says he’s never heard of Joe Biden." The farmer then learned that Biden had been vice president under President Barack Obama. "Are you serious?” he said. "Ohhhhh. I’m not an Obama fan. This is Republican country."
Now, this is the perfect metaphor for Iowa, where Presidential candidates file in whether Iowans want them to or not.
The image surely does not help Biden. It reminds me a bit of Nightmare at 20,000 Feet, to be honest.
Yet, even that wasn't the low point of his week.
Four days later, the media had a field day with titles like Joe Biden Challenges Iowa Voter To Push-Up Contest, May Have Called Him Fat.
NBC News properly gave it context. He may have said "Facts", not "Fat". The person challenging him was a Warren supporter with no intention of ever voting for Biden. The room was on Biden's side.
Still, that quote hangs in the air.
You want to check my shape? Let’s do push-ups, man, let’s run, let’s do whatever you want to do ... let’s take an IQ test.’
Biden would defend his comments the next day as "kidding" and "joking." Interviewed on NPR on Friday and hitting the internet a few hours ago (as I write this), Biden was asked about the moment that he called an 83-year old Northeastern Iowa farmer "a damned liar"
I just pointed out, 'You're a liar.' It's, it's a fact. He lied, period. And so, you know, maybe I shouldn't have kidded with him about that."
"He said, 'You're too old. I can't vote for somebody as old as you.' I said 'OK'." Biden said. "And he was challenging me what kind of shape, and so I kidded. I said, 'Want to do a pushup contest?' I was joking."
"Donald Trump, he makes fun of people. He belittles people. He lies. I don't do any of those things. Period."
Yes, he was a heckler. But, if you are going to put yourself out like that, you might have a "Corporations are People" moment. More credit to Biden for not limiting audiences like Trump, or even pass on coming to the state at all, like Giuliani and Bloomberg. Still, you have to be prepared for that. Pete Buttigieg has been on the campaign trail and has run into bloggers and crazy perennial candidate Randall Terry, and that's unlikely to ever stop.
The trouble is that these images are sticking. Well-intentioned or.... I am not sure quite what... those on the other side had a field day with this campaign stop from the past Saturday where Biden seems to be munching on his wife's fingers.
At the very (very) least, Joe can't do that and not expect it not to be fuel for the other side (which in fact, it totally did).
Out of context or accidental (like surely the "Keep Punching" Domestic Violence" quote from the debate of two weeks ago was), the long story has always been that Biden is a gaffe-machine, but at this rate, Trump is going to bury him.
I am not saying that if you are under 45 and running an outsider campaign, that spraying supporters in the mouth with Whipped Cream while they get down on their knees, at a Campaign Office Opening, is a better look.
Still, Biden has a long history of embarrassing and cringeworthy moments.
Before this Election, Biden's most memorable Iowa moment was his creepy shoulder rubs......
and a 5th place finish in 2008. Biden never topped (a liberal) 8% in polling, and his Iowa 2008 results were so disappointing (less than even 1% of delegates) that Biden didn't even make it to New Hampshire.
All of that came up in discussions that I were having with local Dems back in May, when National polls had him at 40% or even higher.
So, I won't say I am surprised, but it was as bad of a week I think as anyone has ever had in Iowa than I can remember.
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