The Loneliness of the Long Distance Governor

 Here’s the thing about the Iowa caucuses.  It’s kind of a crap shoot. For every story of a Pete Buttigieg or Barack Obama or even a Vivek Ramaswamy that came out of nowhere, there are also plenty of stories where things didn’t go that way. 

There’s Joe Sestak in the 2020 election cycle who moved to a Des Moines hotel but never broke one percent in polling. Or in the same cycle, New York City mayor Bill DeBlasio who famously had a rally reported with only 15 attendees (and would recieve zero votes in the statewide Des Moines Register poll). 

No one can always guess what makes one candidate catch fire and another strike out. It might be Rick Santorum’s fault for this kind of hopeless optimism. Santorum was polling at around 10% only two months before the 2012 Iowa Caucus- but he campaigned furiously and ultimately won the state. 

The 2024 Caucus was no different. Candidates like Tim Scott and Mike Pence dropped out even though they occasionally broke ten percent in polls, while a majority of candidates folded their cards when it looked like they didn’t have a chance. 

One story was Ryan Binkley- the CEO of a consulting group Generational Equity and founder of Create Church. Binkley topped out at just under 800 votes and one percent of the vote. Yet, given Binkley self financed a campaign that hardly got any media attention, his showing is a testament of his work. 

In the other hand, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson never found his footing. Despite being aged 72, on paper, you could make a case for Asa- a strong resume as a leader at different levels including with the George W Bush administration, and a real Conservative record that simultaneously should please Republican voters and yet a voice against Trump and a level headed message for all types of voters. 

In short, a candidate that would be perfect in a Pre-Trump world but now a “Uniter not a divider” relic. 

Hutchison did a lot of stops in Iowa and his Twitter account shows his activities including being an honorary captain for Faith Baptist Bible College (a 30 point loss to Manhattan Christian College) and attending a rodeo. 

In the last 24 hours of the caucus, Vivek Ramaswamy filled the famous “comfort food” restaurant the Machine Shed in West Des Moines. Donald Trump filled the Iowa Events Center with sons Donald Jr and Eric by his side. Nikki Haley was at coffee shops and restaurants, spending time in the Drake University neighborhood. Ron DeSantis spent his last Iowa day with some of the biggest Conservatives in the state - Gov Kim Reynolds and The Family Leader CEO Bob Vander Plaats

And Asa 

With the clock ticking down, Asa took his volunteers bowling. 

Which all things considered, was probably the right thing to do. 

Monday night as I was watching the results come in - Trump in a sports arena, DeSantis at a packed Hotel Sheraton - they cut to the Hutchison Watch Party at Gustos Pizza. 

I like Gustos and I can’t find many details on its capacity (the closest I can find say it maxes out at 115 patrons) but when the camera cut to Asa, well..  he was the only one in the shot. 

And considering he received 191 votes

• just 190 more than I would have if I was presumably on the ballot (I definitely would have voted for myself)

it’s probably right that he ended his campaign though he did so in the most gracious way possible- saying he was proud of his campaign and answering every question he was asked.