Iowa Caucus Postmortem

 The Iowa caucus is a weird thing, no doubt. 

The 2020 Democratic Iowa Caucus is considered a mess. It should be noted that the Democrat caucus was a ranked choice vote that added a wrinkle in the process and with so many candidates that year was probably never going to do smooth. The Caucus is weird though. I defend it on the basis that if forces politicians to interact with the public. That’s important. 

I do think maybe there is something about viability from it on the Democratic side (Iowa loved Obama and disliked Hillary which both seem prescient) but on the Republican side the nation is out of step with Iowa (Huckabee, Santorum, Cruz). The idea of the caucus is to discuss politics with like minded neighbors and I think many have experienced that. 

Here’s the thing though and I won’t say it’s not weird. It’s a physical act. You have a time to show up and vote. It is not an election where you vote between 8 and 8. You have to show up at a certain time (6:30 was the prescribed time this year) and maybe stay an hour or two. If you have to work or have no transportation or whatever might permit you from physically being at a certain place and time, you won’t be able to vote in the Caucus. Also (and this shouldn’t be a surprise) you have to be an Iowan.

Maybe you are a history buff and remember reading how back in the 1850s, Kansas was trying to determine whether to be a Free State or Slave State, and Missourians crossed the border to vote as Kansas residents. 

Well, the caucus doesn’t work that way. Which I feel everyone should know, but a spouse of a candidate didn’t. Ron DeSantis’s wife Casey made headlines with this story covered by the Washington Post:

Casey DeSantis — — urged mothers and grandmothers from around the country to “descend upon the state of Iowa to be a part of the caucus,” and added, “you do not have to be a resident of Iowa to be able to participate in the caucus.” . She said on Fox News that “we’re asking all of these moms and grandmoms to come, from wherever it might be — North Carolina, South Carolina — and to descend upon the state of Iowa to be a part of the caucus.” With Ron DeSantis sitting silently beside her, Casey DeSantis added, “Because you do not have to be a resident of Iowa to be able to participate in the caucus.” She said that people should come “let their voice be heard in support of Ron DeSantis,” the Republican governor of Florida The Florida first lady later clarified in a post on X, the social media site, that “voting in the Iowa caucuses is limited to registered voters in Iowa.” And her husband addressed the confusion with reporters, saying of non-Iowa voters: “Obviously, you can’t vote in the caucus, but you can help with it. They even let people go and speak on behalf of candidates.” 

No, you have to physically be there and this time it was during record cold weather (we are talking 40 below windchill) 

Caucus Then Die would be a great Album title

The Huffington Post (and everyone) reported on Trump’s comments to Caucus then Die: 

Donald Trump is urging even his sickest supporters to turn out in force at Iowa’s caucuses on Monday ― including people so ill that they may be at death’s door. “If you’re sick as a dog, you say, ‘Darling, I gotta make it,’” Trump said at a rally on Sunday. “Even if you vote and then pass away, it’s worth it.” Trump performed a mock conversation between a man who thinks he’s too sick to caucus and his wife ordering him to go anyway. “Get up! You get up, you’re voting,” Trump said as the wife, before switching back to the ailing husband: “Yes, darling.” “Ultimately, we know who calls the shots, right?” Trump added. Iowa is expected to face extremely cold temperatures on Monday, with the wind chill making it feel as low as 40 below, and a weekend blizzard has left many roads still icy and some covered in snow. Trump assured voters they will be safe because “it’s going to be all indoors.” 

Now because of the physical aspect the 2024 Iowa Republican Caucus was not without controversy.

The big news that I heard was that the local news declared Trump the winner before some locations had completed their voting. The New York Times reported:

The smartphones started to buzz at 7:30 p.m. Central time on Monday, just half an hour after the Iowa caucuses had begun. Many Iowans had not yet had a chance to cast a vote when The Associated Press and the major TV networks began to declare former President Donald J. Trump as the winner. The outcome was expected — but the timing was not. The early call confused some Iowans-and infuriated Mr. Trump’s rivals 

It’s an interesting thought since people were seen leaving after the announcement. I would have certainly stayed if I was in line but I get why others may felt that way 

Certainly it was an easy call for the news channels. In January polling, Trump lowest mark was 48% with this highest being 57%. There hasn’t been a poll with Trump less than 40% since August and many ex-candidates earlier. Conversely, De Santis and Haley never topped 19% As expressed earlier, there is an element of unpredictability but the round of polling done over the weekend before put him at 53% (he ended with 51%) and Haley at the 19% she received.

Also, of note, Iowans can change their Party preference on the night and participate in any Caucus, but they do have to express a Party affiliation that sticks with them, if they do so.