2024 Caucus Talk: Who's First

If you follow the Primary Election process, you may know that several states are competing with Iowa to hold the first Democratic primary or caucus in the Nation for 2024. As covered by USA Today, the Des Moines Register, New York Times, Politico and many others, here is a quick and dirty positive and negative about the contenders. Arguments were made in front of the Democratic National Committee a few days ago with a decision maybe as soon as early August.

Colorado
+ Geographically and economically diverse, large numbers of independent and swing voters
- Anticipated that many would vote by mail and thus a delay in results like what happened in Iowa in 2020
Fun fact : As a Super Tuesday State, it got little candidate visits in 2020 and none from Biden

Connecticut
+Close to New York City with a diversity that mirrors the nation, suburban, urban and rural areas all in easy driving distance
-Strongly Democrat State which might not mirror purple/red states
Fun fact- Governor John Carney pitched the idea to the committee saying he left “talking to the President in the Roosevelt Room..to be here on time”

Delaware
+Easy to travel and cheap to advertise with serious voters
- With Biden from Delaware, unlikely to be a competitive state for others.
Fun fact- In 1996 and 2000, they butted heads with New Hampshire over holding an early primary.

Georgia
+Population Diversity and a major player in recent Democratic politics. You may have heard of it.
-Worry about election restrictions, a Republican Secretary of State and a tossup Senate race expected
Fun fact- Atlanta is also bidding for the Democratic National convention

Illinois
+ A large Midwestern state that has many demographic similarities with the nation like race, education, income and age. Recent Democratic gains. Political launching pad for Barack Obama whose kind of a big deal for Democrats
-Expensive Chicago advertising costs, Chicago Teacher Union issues could influence and/or overshadow the election
Fun fact: The Illinois delegation brought Garrett Popcorn (a Chicago staple) to woo the Dems

Iowa
+ Large rural population that might reflect red/purple states. A decades long infrastructure that has supported the first in the nation caucus
-6th least diverse state in the country. People still mad about that 2020 thing
Fun fact- Iowa has introduced sweeping changes that it says takes away the barriers of participation. Also promises to say it’s “really, really, really sorry about 2020”

Maryland
+Most diverse state in its region. Close to Washington DC
-Strongly Democratic state might not be good for strong battleground state candidates
Fun Fact: The last time Maryland didn’t pick the eventual winner of the Democratic primary was 1996 when it chose Paul Tsongas over Bill Clinton

Michigan
+ Presenters argued they have a diverse state that presents a winning formula- labor, college students, highly educated, Blacks and Muslims
- Cost prohibitive for advertising. Late season Republican primary which is unlikely to change
Fun Fact: Michigan Democrats have created a Move Up Michigan website to gain support and the delegation handed out Michigan shaped gummies and showed a video narrated by basketball star Isiah Thomas

Minnesota
+ Highest General Election turnout in the country
-GOP Primary would also be required to move up due to state law and that seems unlikely. One of the least diverse states
Fun fact- Multiple news outlets covered the delegation’s pitch which included Prince’s “Let’s Go Crazy” and Sen Amy Klobuchar’s recipient for her Tater Tot Hot Dish Casserole

Nevada
+ The third most diverse state in the nation. Broad voter access includes same-day registration and early voting. Two media markets cover 98% of the state so easy to advertise
- 75% of the state resides in Clark County (Las Vegas) so candidates might not campaign except in the big cities
Fun Fact: Nevada moves from a caucus to a primary to improve its chances with the Democratic committee- part of the Governor signed legislation last year with an eye on being the first in the nation

New Hampshire
+ A literal century of experience of holding Primaries. Cheap ad markets. Competitive “purple” state. “First in the Nation” state law makes it complicated for anyone to jump in front of New Hampshire. Boasts of having complete results 4 hours after the 2020 primary closed
-Only 4 electoral votes, lack of diversity
Fun fact- New Hampshire survived a date-jumping threat from Michigan and Florida in 2008. Also has support from Massachusetts and Rhode Island state delegation support to keep the first election in New England

New Jersey
+ A largely populated state in a small area seems ideal for this kind of a race. Diverse and competitive Democratic state. Ads would reach into battleground Pennsylvania and into New York. Lots of major corporations with home base in New Jersey
- With those positives comes the flip side of traffic issues and expensive advertising
Fun fact: Beach erosion would put climate change into the discussion

Oklahoma
+ A Democrat hasn’t won in Oklahoma since LBJ in 1964 so maybe the Dems should try to win red state voters
- Oklahoma Republicans unlikely to assist Dems with the move to an early primary
Fun fact-Oklahoma was the first state for bread twist ties, parking meters, shopping carts, Tornado warnings, aerosol cans, Yield signs and Girl Scout cookies. Hey, life’s not all politics you know.

Puerto Rico
+Would benefit the discussion around Hispanic and Latino issues which could help in battleground states like Florida
- Although part of the primary process, the territory does not get to vote in the General Election
Fun fact :In lieu of a Congressperson, Puerto Rico sends a non voting Resident Commissioner to the House of Representatives

South Carolina
+ South Carolina (and Rep Jim Clyburn) take credit for getting the last Democratic nomination to Joe Biden and that worked pretty well. Large African American population. Cheaper ad space than Georgia or North Carolina. Competitive General Election state
- State Democrats not perceived as mobilizing the state’s growing Latino population
Fun fact- Flight delays rescheduled the state delegation’s presentation to the Democratic committee headed by DNC Chair Jaime Harrison, a South Carolinian

Texas
+Party leaders think this move could be the push that turns Texas Blue and deliver 40 electoral votes. Diverse population
- If Texas Dems moved their contest early, it’s likely Texas Republicans would do same and cancel any fundraising or enthusiasm benefits. Very expensive to advertise with 22 media markets
Fun fact : Home to the most diverse city in the US (Houston), Texas also proportions delegates by votes (as opposed to a winner takes all race) which keeps things competitive. Texas was a big race in 2020 with Mike Bloomberg outspending everyone in the field 4 to 1, and Biden getting the kind of win which cemented his nomination (Biden 35%, Sanders 30% Bloomberg 14% Warren 11%)