Uh-oh!

It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. Right?

Caucus night was here and the phone calls and door knockers would stop. 

Five campaigns showed up early with their signs. The Big 4 and Andrew Yang. Pollsters had started to question the support of Warren and Buttigieg, but anyone who had been paying attention knew that they were backed by strong organizations. 

This was going on across Iowa. I was in a medium sized precinct which meant there would be no media excitement. Not big enough to draw an actual candidate like  Elizabeth Warren. Not small enough to be considered “folksy, small town Iowa” for the National media.

Big crowds were to be expected and one thing the IDP did well was to make sure there was plenty of room. This meant some last minute changes of venue (though things worked fairly smoothly, and the narrative of “moved locations” is an exaggeration) .

I don't think people can really understand the Caucus without seeing a room full of neighbors and colorful signs. 

Precinct leaders were given one minute to speak on their candidate.  Warren, Buttigieg, Yang and Sanders were introduced as you would expect by excited  young Iowans. We may have watched a million ads, but here was real politicking.

Whether he was the precinct leader going in or drafted ad hoc, Klobuchar had one as well, and he was a good one- a charismatic schoolteacher with cool 1990s hair. 

Joe Biden had sent a surrogate for his stump speech- a friend of his - (a college buddy or family friend maybe) who knew Joe most all of his life. It’s not unusual for surrogates and it’s likely -big names like Jill Biden, Chasten Buttigieg and Tom Steyer’s daughters were somewhere doing the same. 

Still, it rang as a note of what was going to happen. If this was neighbor trying to convince neighbor, Biden was the odd man out. It also reinforced the fact that while Warren and Buttigieg canvassers had hit the neighborhood hard, perhaps Biden’s ground game was lacking

The new changes meant only two votes, though in my eyes, it rather felt like three alignments.  Perhaps that was unavoidable. It was clear to look to see Steyer (4 people) Bennet (2), perhaps a Bloomberg or 2, some assorted uncommitted and even Biden were too small to be viable. It also appeared Klobuchar may need 1 or 2 and Yang would need at least a handful, perhaps more. 

When the count came, four candidates were viable. It was clear that Buttigieg and Warren owned the room with a slight advantage to the Mayor. Sanders group was enough to make the cut. Klobuchar had managed to become viable before the vote. Yang and Biden were not going to make it. 

This of course is where the Caucus gets interesting and perhaps provides a sneak peak into ranked voting. The Yang group divided near evenly into the Sanders and Buttigieg camps. 

Of note, three of the Biden crowd left and one even said “If Biden is not the nominee, I will just vote for Trump.”  After months of complaints and threats levied at almost everyone, I was surprised that it was Biden supporters who were the one picking up the ball and taking it home. 

In some insight from this precinct, it seemed no one went over to Warren on second alignment. Also, of note, the Steyer four seemed to be the most resistant to realign and seemed to weigh their options the heaviest. 

This, of course, led to the delegate count- often the most controversial moment because it’s hard to understand. At this point, the two largest camps are Buttigieg and Warren with a slight number advantage to Mayor Pete. There are a sizable (though not as big) group of Sanders and Klobuchar supporters. 

There are 10 delegates to assign, so 3 go to Warren and Buttigieg, 2 each to Sanders and Klobuchar. But how else would you do it?  All 10 to Buttigieg? 6 to Pete 4 to Warren? As many to Yang as to Klobuchar?  No, none of those equations are any better. It’s always going to be a weird process if you are converting percentages into whole numbers. 

It also should be mentioned that the Caucus is a party process.  It is not a general election.  It has quirks and rules, by design, and at the same time, though they strive for fairness, it is its own thing.

It should be noted that besides the cranky Bidener, everyone likely went home very happy. Yes, it no doubt sucks when your candidate is not viable, but it is a good feeling to join a bigger group and share commonality. Yang may not have been viable in this precinct, but I will tell you that Precinct Leader for Yang sold a solid image of Andrew to a few appreciative Buttigieg supporters. 

Of course, we know the night did not end there. Making it home in time for the 9:00 news, local news anchors were visibly frustrated that they did not have numbers to report. 

We are so used to polls closing in a general election at 9:00 and a winner declared at 9:05. I was fine with letting the process play out. Heck, I just literally got done and got home.

It would soon become apparent that results were not coming. 

Now, I knew, the Dems were going to use a. Phone app to report results or otherwise call in. I was born before the internet generation, so I am naturally skeptical.  In retrospect, technology got the blame for something that seems so avoidable.

There are a few things to bear in mind. In the IDPs mind, the worst possible scenario was declaring the wrong winner. This happened in the 2008 Republican primary. Romney was declared the winner, but when the last ballot was counted, Rick Santorum had the most votes. 

It is also worth mentioning that there is a certain level of paranoia around the process. I honestly believe there is no conspiracy in 2020, not was there a great conspiracy in 2016. That said, these events are handled by volunteers. The truth also is it felt like Bernie was treated as an outsider candidate because he was. I totally can understand where a 2016 Bernie supporter could have had a bad taste left in their mouth. 

To the Dems credit, they’re trying to make sure the voting is done honestly. At my precinct, tallying took awhile, because every Precinct Leader had to come up with the same amount for each candidate. Isn’t that what you would want?

Unfortunately, the media wanted a story to cover, and admittedly they didn’t want to be wrong either. 

Exacerbating the situation is that it’s 2020, and results are everywhere. I had the results of a dozen different caucus locations, and I am a nobody (who just happens to have a blog). Apparently sites like Reddit were sharing these on a bigger scale. 

So, for the average Joe, they were told that there were no results, yet, they could get their hands on tons of data.

I doubt many Caucusgoers were in a different place than I was.  Perhaps interested in finding out who won, but satisfied with completing the process and knowing at least preliminary what might be, with texts from friends to fill them in on a few other precincts.

Those stories- the Klobuchar surge, the Biden freefall, Sanders or Buttigieg claiming victory- were not concrete enough for the media,but Iowa Democrats were starting to feel them. 

Of course, those not in Iowa or not participating don’t get the satisfaction of completion. The social media outcry is deafening. Every negative thing about the Caucus comes out. 

Unfortunately, the positive stuff gets drowned out. Would a National primary be better?  Well, it likely would have given us Biden. An Iowa Caucus was able to get Pete Buttigieg and Andrew Yang on the national stage. Although, Yang might not be considered one of the winners, taking his campaign to the next level was a win. 

Yes, it is odd that Presidential candidates might literally be at your neighbor’s house but a National Primary likely ends that tradition. 

Having correct numbers is important. Their are campaigns that are a bit paranoid. There is also the extra addition of reporting three numbers- an actual count, a delegate count, and a count of the second alignment. We also have several candidates with a following- more than what we are used to. 

That said, surely the appearance is of a disaster. While trying to be transparent, the appearance is of the complete opposite. Giving no results make it sound like the results will be doctored, despite the IDP putting together a paper trail to squash the possibility.  I suppose that's irony.

It feels that the death of the Iowa Caucus is inevitable. By law, New Hampshire has the first primary in the nation- Iowa only gets to go first because it’s not a primary.  If Iowa abandons the Caucus, likely it becomes just another primary.

I suspect the fallout will be too much for Iowa to Overcome.  At a local level, I think Iowa Dems are less annoyed than the world at large. Anyway, we are still mad that it reflects badly on us, and this may be the end of a truly unique process that outsiders don't understand, and that's  a shame.