Elected, Respected, Selected, Call Collected
Iowa is in the spotlight again as the latest Des Moines Register poll is out.
To be honest, the results of the polls have not been surprising to me. They are in line with what I have seen and Dems I talked to. I know I fall in the trap of social media sometimes which can distort whose the loudest, but my gut is with the results as they currently show.
To that end, I think the Warren and Buttigieg ground campaigns are strong, and they are appealing with the voters of Iowa. It's not to say other candidates are not appealing (believe me, social media will tell you that their candidate is winning), but it is no surprise to me.
The headline that likely write itself is 'how liberal do Iowans want the Party to go?'.
The story as we get to the actual night itself will likely be around the uniqueness of the Caucus. If a candidate does not gain 15%, then they are not considered viable. The question then may be where do Booker and Harris supporters go. It may even be that Gabbard and Yang supporters join Bernie to try and get some delegates there. There's a lot to that. Enough so, that it warrants a blogpost of its own, and I have put it on my "To Do" list.
In 2008, that is where someone like Bill Richardson or Joe Biden could not breakthrough, but their supporters largely went behind Obama to help propel him.
If you know me, you know I love this, and it pains me to mention any alternative, but I feel like I can't cover the whole story without mentioning Julian Castro's comments this week that Iowa is not diverse enough to hold the first primary.
The writers over at The Root go into some detail on how to fix it. They are not wrong, and perhaps an early Mississippi primary or a Regional Southern multi-state primary might go a great deal in fixing that.
That said, Iowa is so entrenched at being first, that I am almost uncomfortable stating as such, even writing under a pseudonym. Let us not forget, it has also been very successful for Democrats, launching Carter, Clinton, and Obama. The Party surely reads this as "It ain't broke. Don't fix it".
If anything, it is nice to see the Democrats and Republicans (at least in this state) agree on something. It is hard not to love the Iowa Caucus, at least a little, when it forces candidates to be real and not hide behind a National podium.
Iowa State Political Science Professor Steffen Schmidt (writing in the Des Moines Register) offers up that in Castro's example, the problem isn't Iowa, it's Castro. He goes to point out that Castro is only drawing 3% in his home state of Texas (putting him in 7th Place there), and is polling at 0% in 13th place in California. Schmidt also points out that despite the attention, Iowa doesn't have a disproportionate influence when it comes to delegates (Iowa has 49, while California has 495, Texas 262, Florida 248, and New York 327).
He aquotes longtime politico David Yepsen in saying that Iowa does not pick the nominee, but it does test if candidate has viability, and the oft-mentioned "There's Three Tickets out of Iowa", which means you don't need to win Iowa, but you certainly can't finish sixth.
Anyway, let's look at the Register numbers:
Buttigieg 25%
Warren 16%
Biden 15%
Sanders 15%
Klobuchar 6%
Harris, Booker, Yang, Steyer, Gabbard 3%
Bloomberg 2%
Bennet 1%
Bullock, Castro, Stesak <1%
Combining first and second choices isn't perfect math, but allows you to somewhat visualize possible motion. This ties Buttigieg and Warren closer together.
Buttigieg 39%
Warren 36%
Sanders, Biden 28%
Klobuchar 12%
Harris 10%
Booker, Steyer, Gabbard 6%
Yang 5%
Bloomberg 3%
Castro, Bennet, Williamson 1%
Another poll is whether a candidate is being actively considered. This would also suggest Pete vs Elizabeth head to head and that Kamala Harris has some potential momentum.
Buttigeg 68%
Warren 66%
Biden 58%
Sanders 54%
Harris 46%
Klobuchar 39%
Booker 36%
Yang 33%
Steyer 26%
Castro 18%
Gabbard 17%
Bloomberg 14%
Bennet 11%
Bullock 8%
Delaney 7%
Sestak 3%
As always The Register analyzes the numbers, and so we put it here in easy to read format, kind of like those Chinese Restaurant Birthday Calendars.
Pete Buttigeig - Mayor Pete had 15% in June after some strong campaign visits, but fell to 9% in September. He does well with Moderates and Higher Incomes. He does less well with "Very Liberal" Dems and Union households. His Favorability of 72% leads the pack. His supporters want someone who can get legislation passed.
Elizabeth Warren- Warren does best with the "Very Liberal", though the Register suggests some defection. She has went from 9% in March to 15% in June to topping the poll with 22% in September and is now at 16%. Her favorability equals Pete at 71%, but she carries a 25% Unfavorable rating compared to Pete's 12%. Her supporters want "Big Ideas"
Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders- Biden's biggest strength is that his supporters think he will beat a Donald Trump, a sentiment that isn't as strongly held by anyone else. His support with Over 65 and Rural voters is moving over to Pete. His numbers have been on a steady slide from 27% in March.
Undoubtedly, Bernie's strength is the certainty of his supporters that they will back him. 57 % of his supporters have their minds made up, as opposed to 27% for Pete. Bernie, probably unsurprisingly, is very popular with Liberals, fighting with Warren over those voters. Sanders has polled from as high as 25% to as low as 11% this year.
Amy Klobuchar- Amy has been polling at 2-3%, so this is her best showing to date. She does best with Seniors, and the Register thinks this poll will help get her in the December Debate as requirements get harder.
Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer, Tulsi Gabbard- Harris had been polling at 6-7%. She saw her numbers drop as her favorability has also dropped. Her best numbers are with those who describe themselves as "not very liberal"
Booker has never polled more than 3%, but he does finish seventh under those that might be actively considered. He has also taken a hit in favorability ratings. The Register says he has the most consistent appeal across various categories, but his weakest points are with Independents and First Time Caucusgoers
Yang's numbers have seen a slow incline, and he has gained in favorabilily ratings (jumping from an initial 7% to 36% in September to currently 43%
Steyer joined the race in July and has seen a jump in his favorability rating. To the point where pollster Ann Selzer mentions its remark-ability in such a short time. Steyer does well with older voters, not very well with younger voters.
Gabbard has a high unfavorable rating with Democrats of 45%, but her numbers are going up. She does very well in the Western part of the State (the very Red Steve King district) and very well with Union households.
Michael Bloomberg - Just entering the race, and focusing almost exclusively on Super Tuesday, Bloomberg has the most unfavorable rating of any Dem (58%)
Michael Bennet - Bennet has stayed steady at 1%, but his Favorability numbers are on the upswing. He does best with "Hillary Primary 2016" voters
Steve Bullock, Julian Castro, Joe Sestak- Bullock also has seen an upswing in Favorability, but like Bennet (at 47%), Bullock is largely unknown (50%). Bullock does best with Seniors.
Castro is equal in the Favorable/Unfavorable poll question (35%). He does well with "Very Liberal" Democrats.
Sestak has high Unfavorable to Favorable results (8%+/24%-) and 69% are still undecided.
Marianne Williamson, John Delaney- This time around, no one selected wither Marianne or John as their first choice. Delaney was steady polling at 1%, but even people considering him has dropped off.
The Register has the most watched poll, but, it of course, is not the only poll.
If you look at similar time frame polls (like last time), there really are four candidates who could claim they are in the lead.
The Register suggests Pete is on top with significant room, but no one else is suggesting that.
YouGov has essentially a four-way tie at the top, with Sanders and Biden both leading at 22%. PublicPolicyPolling shows it even between Pete and Liz. Monmouth University (a poll 538 likes) puts it Pete then Biden then Warren. University of Iowa puts Warren on top with Bernie and Pete tied for second. Quinnipac University similarly has Warren on top, but Buttigieg and Sanders are so close, that any of them could be leading statistically.
It also should be noted that the most recent New Hampshire poll (from Saint Anslem College) also now has Pete ahead by 10 points. Imagine the 1-2 punch that would be, and these numbers come from states where candidates need to be on the ground. If you look at National numbers, Joe Biden leads, and Pete only musters anywhere between 6-9%.
The Dems get the Sunday Paper Headlines, but the Register polls Republicans too.
It is interesting that the GOP seemingly wants to take away any competition for President Trump, when polling data shows he would crush the competition. I would almost certainly let it play out, instead of drawing attention to it.
I mean someone is going to run. In 2012, Obama faced challenges from Perennial Candidates (John Wolfe Jr, and Darcy Richardson), an actual prisoner (Keith Russell Judd), a guy that the Hayes, Texas newspaper hoped was related to Joe Ely (Bob Ely) that guy with the boot on his head (Vermin Supreme) and the angry abortion guy (Randall Terry)- giving up over 353,000 to that crew and another 426,000 who voted uncommitted.
Yes, Trump may get some opposition, but among Iowa Republicans, his numbers are strong, and even growing, if that is possible. His approval is 85% among Republicans, and 76% said they would definitely vote for him.
Also, of note, Republicans think Mayor Pete is the toughest opponent, Sanders the easiest.
As far as opposition goes, they are largely unknown, but have small Favorabilty scores (Joe Walsh 8%, Bill Weld 4%). Mitt Romney has swung from being a mostly liked Republican figure (65% +/ 21%-) to the other way in a year's time (36%+/46%-).
The Poll asked Republicans if their allegiance was to Trump (41%) or to The Party (43%). Though it is probably good news for the GOP that they have younger voters, highly educated voters, richer voters, moderates and Western Iowans, Trump does well with Evangelicals and Very Conservative Republicans. This will be important in a post-Trump world, much like the big hole a charismatic leader like Reagan left.
Mike Pence is well liked too, with 82% Favorable among Republican voters.
If you are looking for more Republican numbers in Iowa, Emerson College is the most recent, and here are those results from about a month back.
Trump 93%
Weld 4%
Walsh 2%
Sanford 1%
To be honest, the results of the polls have not been surprising to me. They are in line with what I have seen and Dems I talked to. I know I fall in the trap of social media sometimes which can distort whose the loudest, but my gut is with the results as they currently show.
To that end, I think the Warren and Buttigieg ground campaigns are strong, and they are appealing with the voters of Iowa. It's not to say other candidates are not appealing (believe me, social media will tell you that their candidate is winning), but it is no surprise to me.
The headline that likely write itself is 'how liberal do Iowans want the Party to go?'.
The story as we get to the actual night itself will likely be around the uniqueness of the Caucus. If a candidate does not gain 15%, then they are not considered viable. The question then may be where do Booker and Harris supporters go. It may even be that Gabbard and Yang supporters join Bernie to try and get some delegates there. There's a lot to that. Enough so, that it warrants a blogpost of its own, and I have put it on my "To Do" list.
In 2008, that is where someone like Bill Richardson or Joe Biden could not breakthrough, but their supporters largely went behind Obama to help propel him.
If you know me, you know I love this, and it pains me to mention any alternative, but I feel like I can't cover the whole story without mentioning Julian Castro's comments this week that Iowa is not diverse enough to hold the first primary.
The writers over at The Root go into some detail on how to fix it. They are not wrong, and perhaps an early Mississippi primary or a Regional Southern multi-state primary might go a great deal in fixing that.
That said, Iowa is so entrenched at being first, that I am almost uncomfortable stating as such, even writing under a pseudonym. Let us not forget, it has also been very successful for Democrats, launching Carter, Clinton, and Obama. The Party surely reads this as "It ain't broke. Don't fix it".
If anything, it is nice to see the Democrats and Republicans (at least in this state) agree on something. It is hard not to love the Iowa Caucus, at least a little, when it forces candidates to be real and not hide behind a National podium.
Iowa State Political Science Professor Steffen Schmidt (writing in the Des Moines Register) offers up that in Castro's example, the problem isn't Iowa, it's Castro. He goes to point out that Castro is only drawing 3% in his home state of Texas (putting him in 7th Place there), and is polling at 0% in 13th place in California. Schmidt also points out that despite the attention, Iowa doesn't have a disproportionate influence when it comes to delegates (Iowa has 49, while California has 495, Texas 262, Florida 248, and New York 327).
He aquotes longtime politico David Yepsen in saying that Iowa does not pick the nominee, but it does test if candidate has viability, and the oft-mentioned "There's Three Tickets out of Iowa", which means you don't need to win Iowa, but you certainly can't finish sixth.
Anyway, let's look at the Register numbers:
Buttigieg 25%
Warren 16%
Biden 15%
Sanders 15%
Klobuchar 6%
Harris, Booker, Yang, Steyer, Gabbard 3%
Bloomberg 2%
Bennet 1%
Bullock, Castro, Stesak <1%
Combining first and second choices isn't perfect math, but allows you to somewhat visualize possible motion. This ties Buttigieg and Warren closer together.
Buttigieg 39%
Warren 36%
Sanders, Biden 28%
Klobuchar 12%
Harris 10%
Booker, Steyer, Gabbard 6%
Yang 5%
Bloomberg 3%
Castro, Bennet, Williamson 1%
Another poll is whether a candidate is being actively considered. This would also suggest Pete vs Elizabeth head to head and that Kamala Harris has some potential momentum.
Buttigeg 68%
Warren 66%
Biden 58%
Sanders 54%
Harris 46%
Klobuchar 39%
Booker 36%
Yang 33%
Steyer 26%
Castro 18%
Gabbard 17%
Bloomberg 14%
Bennet 11%
Bullock 8%
Delaney 7%
Sestak 3%
As always The Register analyzes the numbers, and so we put it here in easy to read format, kind of like those Chinese Restaurant Birthday Calendars.
Best Match: Tiger; Avoid the: Snake
Pete Buttigeig - Mayor Pete had 15% in June after some strong campaign visits, but fell to 9% in September. He does well with Moderates and Higher Incomes. He does less well with "Very Liberal" Dems and Union households. His Favorability of 72% leads the pack. His supporters want someone who can get legislation passed.
Elizabeth Warren- Warren does best with the "Very Liberal", though the Register suggests some defection. She has went from 9% in March to 15% in June to topping the poll with 22% in September and is now at 16%. Her favorability equals Pete at 71%, but she carries a 25% Unfavorable rating compared to Pete's 12%. Her supporters want "Big Ideas"
Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders- Biden's biggest strength is that his supporters think he will beat a Donald Trump, a sentiment that isn't as strongly held by anyone else. His support with Over 65 and Rural voters is moving over to Pete. His numbers have been on a steady slide from 27% in March.
Undoubtedly, Bernie's strength is the certainty of his supporters that they will back him. 57 % of his supporters have their minds made up, as opposed to 27% for Pete. Bernie, probably unsurprisingly, is very popular with Liberals, fighting with Warren over those voters. Sanders has polled from as high as 25% to as low as 11% this year.
Amy Klobuchar- Amy has been polling at 2-3%, so this is her best showing to date. She does best with Seniors, and the Register thinks this poll will help get her in the December Debate as requirements get harder.
Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer, Tulsi Gabbard- Harris had been polling at 6-7%. She saw her numbers drop as her favorability has also dropped. Her best numbers are with those who describe themselves as "not very liberal"
Booker has never polled more than 3%, but he does finish seventh under those that might be actively considered. He has also taken a hit in favorability ratings. The Register says he has the most consistent appeal across various categories, but his weakest points are with Independents and First Time Caucusgoers
Yang's numbers have seen a slow incline, and he has gained in favorabilily ratings (jumping from an initial 7% to 36% in September to currently 43%
Steyer joined the race in July and has seen a jump in his favorability rating. To the point where pollster Ann Selzer mentions its remark-ability in such a short time. Steyer does well with older voters, not very well with younger voters.
Gabbard has a high unfavorable rating with Democrats of 45%, but her numbers are going up. She does very well in the Western part of the State (the very Red Steve King district) and very well with Union households.
Michael Bloomberg - Just entering the race, and focusing almost exclusively on Super Tuesday, Bloomberg has the most unfavorable rating of any Dem (58%)
Michael Bennet - Bennet has stayed steady at 1%, but his Favorability numbers are on the upswing. He does best with "Hillary Primary 2016" voters
Steve Bullock, Julian Castro, Joe Sestak- Bullock also has seen an upswing in Favorability, but like Bennet (at 47%), Bullock is largely unknown (50%). Bullock does best with Seniors.
Castro is equal in the Favorable/Unfavorable poll question (35%). He does well with "Very Liberal" Democrats.
Sestak has high Unfavorable to Favorable results (8%+/24%-) and 69% are still undecided.
Marianne Williamson, John Delaney- This time around, no one selected wither Marianne or John as their first choice. Delaney was steady polling at 1%, but even people considering him has dropped off.
The Register has the most watched poll, but, it of course, is not the only poll.
If you look at similar time frame polls (like last time), there really are four candidates who could claim they are in the lead.
The Register suggests Pete is on top with significant room, but no one else is suggesting that.
YouGov has essentially a four-way tie at the top, with Sanders and Biden both leading at 22%. PublicPolicyPolling shows it even between Pete and Liz. Monmouth University (a poll 538 likes) puts it Pete then Biden then Warren. University of Iowa puts Warren on top with Bernie and Pete tied for second. Quinnipac University similarly has Warren on top, but Buttigieg and Sanders are so close, that any of them could be leading statistically.
It also should be noted that the most recent New Hampshire poll (from Saint Anslem College) also now has Pete ahead by 10 points. Imagine the 1-2 punch that would be, and these numbers come from states where candidates need to be on the ground. If you look at National numbers, Joe Biden leads, and Pete only musters anywhere between 6-9%.
The Dems get the Sunday Paper Headlines, but the Register polls Republicans too.
It is interesting that the GOP seemingly wants to take away any competition for President Trump, when polling data shows he would crush the competition. I would almost certainly let it play out, instead of drawing attention to it.
I mean someone is going to run. In 2012, Obama faced challenges from Perennial Candidates (John Wolfe Jr, and Darcy Richardson), an actual prisoner (Keith Russell Judd), a guy that the Hayes, Texas newspaper hoped was related to Joe Ely (Bob Ely) that guy with the boot on his head (Vermin Supreme) and the angry abortion guy (Randall Terry)- giving up over 353,000 to that crew and another 426,000 who voted uncommitted.
Yes, Trump may get some opposition, but among Iowa Republicans, his numbers are strong, and even growing, if that is possible. His approval is 85% among Republicans, and 76% said they would definitely vote for him.
Also, of note, Republicans think Mayor Pete is the toughest opponent, Sanders the easiest.
As far as opposition goes, they are largely unknown, but have small Favorabilty scores (Joe Walsh 8%, Bill Weld 4%). Mitt Romney has swung from being a mostly liked Republican figure (65% +/ 21%-) to the other way in a year's time (36%+/46%-).
The Poll asked Republicans if their allegiance was to Trump (41%) or to The Party (43%). Though it is probably good news for the GOP that they have younger voters, highly educated voters, richer voters, moderates and Western Iowans, Trump does well with Evangelicals and Very Conservative Republicans. This will be important in a post-Trump world, much like the big hole a charismatic leader like Reagan left.
Mike Pence is well liked too, with 82% Favorable among Republican voters.
If you are looking for more Republican numbers in Iowa, Emerson College is the most recent, and here are those results from about a month back.
Trump 93%
Weld 4%
Walsh 2%
Sanford 1%
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