It was my understanding that there would be no math
The Des Moines Register Poll came out this weekend. The Register did not have a good week as their reporting on Carson King's teenage tweets seemed to send Iowans over the edge.
Still, the Register Poll is iconic, and I love the extra minutiae.
It comes off a National Qunnipac poll that put Warren up 14 points, and showed her ahead of Joe Biden for the first time.
Nationwide:
Warren 27%
Biden 25%
Sanders 16%
Buttigieg 7%
Harris 3%
I was in Massachusetts incidentally this week, and was told by one person that Warren, will be another Hillary, a candidate with too much baggage to beat Trump. I think in this day and age, though, we are hypercritical of our local politicians.
So, with no further ado, here's the numbers: in Iowa
Warren 22%
Biden 20%
Sanders 11%
Buttigieg 9%
Harris 6%
Booker, Klobuchar 3%
Gabbard, Steyer, O'Rourke, Yang 2%
Bullock, Castro, Delaney 1%
Bennet, Williamson <1%
None of the Above 2%
Unsure 14%
Because the Caucus is sort of a game in Iowa, the first and second preferences can be important, so we add those numbers up and we get:
Warren 42%
Biden 30%
Sanders 21%
Buttigieg 18%
Harris 16%
Booker, Klobuchar 7%
Yang, O'Rourke 4%
Steyer, Gabbard 3%
Castro 2%
Bennet, Bullock, Delaney 1%
Not a lot to be gleamed for that, so we look at who is being "actively considered"
Warren 71%
Biden 60%
Buttigieg, Harris 55%
Sanders 50%
Booker 42%
O'Rourke 38
Klobuchar 37%
Yang 24%
Castro 22%
Steyer 21%
Gabbard 15%
Delaney 10%
Everyone else <10%
This could suggest that Pete or Kamala could surge if things would shift. It would also probably be worth looking at the top candidates in the similar "favorability" column.
Warren 75%
Buttigieg 69%
Biden 66%
Harris 63%
Booker 60%
Sanders 58%
O'Rorke 55%
Klobuchar 52%
Warren (17%) and Mayor Pete have super low Unfavorable numbers, with Buttigeig the lowest (13%).
Here is a breakdown of the candidates and their particulars.
Warren- The Biden vs Warren dynamic is interesting. One side of the coin is that Biden supporters aren't as enthusiastic as Warren supporters. The other is that the Biden voters seem less likely to move. They're locked in. Warren support seems to be more "probably I'm going" than "I'm definitely going". Probably not that telling, but Warren's support comes from those who describe themselves as Liberal, and she does not draw many independents. Also, of note, she pulls the most "Sanders 16" voters.
Biden - Biden has seen his popularity drop 15 points since March. He does very well with the Over 65 crowd. He also polls well with men, those without a college degree and rural voters, leading in all those categories.
Sanders- Sanders was the young voters (35 and under) crowd, but that crowd has dissipated somewhat (Warren now is the leader in that category). That said, he still has some of that magic. He does extremely well with first-time caucusgoers (as does Warren in equal parts). He does very well, not surprising, with those who considered themselves "Very Liberal"
Buttigieg -The second most liked-candidate (besides Warren) He does well with suburban voters. His low category is first time caucusgoers. In March, he had a 17% favorability rating, that has now jumped to 69%
Harris- Harris remains in a good spot, but while her Favorability rating has grown (from "Don't know enough about her"), equally, the Unfavorable rating has grown. She does very well with the Very Liberal crowd and struggles most with low-income voters.
Booker- Booker does very well in the categories of Women voters, Suburban voters, High income voters and Very Liberal voters.
Klobuchar-Klobuchar does well with voters aged 55 and over. She scores lowest with first-time caucusgoers. Of note, she is a very popular "second option" for Biden supporters
O'Rourke- Beto does well with a gang of voters who describe themselves as "Liberal, but not Very Liberal". His unfavorable numbers have increased quite a bit. He does not do well with Independents.
Yang -Yang has seen both 'favorable' and 'unfavorable' columns go up as Iowans get to know him. He does well with suburban voters. His numbers are slightly rising, which of course, is better than the alternative.
Steyer- 41% of Iowans have not made their mind up about Tom Steyer yet, but so far, more have decided that they don't like him, than those that do. He polls well with those over aged 65, and worst with those under 35.
Gabbard- Tulsi's "unfavorable " rating has grown as Democrat caucusgoers have gotten to know her. Probably, not surprising, though, she does very well with Independents. Her weakest area is Northeast Iowa, which has tended to go Democratic in recent years, after many years of GOP favor.
Castro-Castro's unfavorable numbers have really jumped up, and he now has a net (-1%) unfavorable rating. His number movement seems to be tied around the debates, with those who watched the debates giving him bad numbers.
Delaney Delaney's favorable numbers have dropped 10 percent and his unfavorable numbers rise.
Bullock - Still not well known with Iowans, he has a net unfavorable rating of 5%. He does better wit "Definite" caucusgoers rather than "Probable". With his red state background, it is probably not a surprise, he does well with rural voters. He has low numbers with low-income voters.
Bennet- He has a net unfavorable rating of 3%, but like Bullock, there's still more than 50% of caucusgoers who don't have an opinion of him.
Williamson- Marianne went from that 'no opinion' category to the 'unfavorable' category after the debates, She has a 9% favorable rating and a 48% unfavorable.
Sestak- High unknown (72%) but high unfavorable too (21%). None of the 602 Dems polled picked Sestak as their first choice.
Ryan- Tim Ryan is another with a high 'no opinion' category, though he is 5 points more 'unfavorable' than Bennet or Bullock. Ryan does well with rural Iowans. None of the 602 Dems polled picked Ryan as their first or second choice.
DeBlasio - None of the 602 Dems polled picked DeBalsio as their first or second choice in this poll or the last three quarters of polling. Whoo boy! No wonder he dropped out. He carried an unfavorable rating of 54%
Still, the Register Poll is iconic, and I love the extra minutiae.
It comes off a National Qunnipac poll that put Warren up 14 points, and showed her ahead of Joe Biden for the first time.
Nationwide:
Warren 27%
Biden 25%
Sanders 16%
Buttigieg 7%
Harris 3%
I was in Massachusetts incidentally this week, and was told by one person that Warren, will be another Hillary, a candidate with too much baggage to beat Trump. I think in this day and age, though, we are hypercritical of our local politicians.
So, with no further ado, here's the numbers: in Iowa
Warren 22%
Biden 20%
Sanders 11%
Buttigieg 9%
Harris 6%
Booker, Klobuchar 3%
Gabbard, Steyer, O'Rourke, Yang 2%
Bullock, Castro, Delaney 1%
Bennet, Williamson <1%
None of the Above 2%
Unsure 14%
Because the Caucus is sort of a game in Iowa, the first and second preferences can be important, so we add those numbers up and we get:
Warren 42%
Biden 30%
Sanders 21%
Buttigieg 18%
Harris 16%
Booker, Klobuchar 7%
Yang, O'Rourke 4%
Steyer, Gabbard 3%
Castro 2%
Bennet, Bullock, Delaney 1%
Not a lot to be gleamed for that, so we look at who is being "actively considered"
Warren 71%
Biden 60%
Buttigieg, Harris 55%
Sanders 50%
Booker 42%
O'Rourke 38
Klobuchar 37%
Yang 24%
Castro 22%
Steyer 21%
Gabbard 15%
Delaney 10%
Everyone else <10%
This could suggest that Pete or Kamala could surge if things would shift. It would also probably be worth looking at the top candidates in the similar "favorability" column.
Warren 75%
Buttigieg 69%
Biden 66%
Harris 63%
Booker 60%
Sanders 58%
O'Rorke 55%
Klobuchar 52%
Warren (17%) and Mayor Pete have super low Unfavorable numbers, with Buttigeig the lowest (13%).
Here is a breakdown of the candidates and their particulars.
Warren- The Biden vs Warren dynamic is interesting. One side of the coin is that Biden supporters aren't as enthusiastic as Warren supporters. The other is that the Biden voters seem less likely to move. They're locked in. Warren support seems to be more "probably I'm going" than "I'm definitely going". Probably not that telling, but Warren's support comes from those who describe themselves as Liberal, and she does not draw many independents. Also, of note, she pulls the most "Sanders 16" voters.
Biden - Biden has seen his popularity drop 15 points since March. He does very well with the Over 65 crowd. He also polls well with men, those without a college degree and rural voters, leading in all those categories.
Sanders- Sanders was the young voters (35 and under) crowd, but that crowd has dissipated somewhat (Warren now is the leader in that category). That said, he still has some of that magic. He does extremely well with first-time caucusgoers (as does Warren in equal parts). He does very well, not surprising, with those who considered themselves "Very Liberal"
Buttigieg -The second most liked-candidate (besides Warren) He does well with suburban voters. His low category is first time caucusgoers. In March, he had a 17% favorability rating, that has now jumped to 69%
Harris- Harris remains in a good spot, but while her Favorability rating has grown (from "Don't know enough about her"), equally, the Unfavorable rating has grown. She does very well with the Very Liberal crowd and struggles most with low-income voters.
Booker- Booker does very well in the categories of Women voters, Suburban voters, High income voters and Very Liberal voters.
Klobuchar-Klobuchar does well with voters aged 55 and over. She scores lowest with first-time caucusgoers. Of note, she is a very popular "second option" for Biden supporters
O'Rourke- Beto does well with a gang of voters who describe themselves as "Liberal, but not Very Liberal". His unfavorable numbers have increased quite a bit. He does not do well with Independents.
Yang -Yang has seen both 'favorable' and 'unfavorable' columns go up as Iowans get to know him. He does well with suburban voters. His numbers are slightly rising, which of course, is better than the alternative.
Steyer- 41% of Iowans have not made their mind up about Tom Steyer yet, but so far, more have decided that they don't like him, than those that do. He polls well with those over aged 65, and worst with those under 35.
Gabbard- Tulsi's "unfavorable " rating has grown as Democrat caucusgoers have gotten to know her. Probably, not surprising, though, she does very well with Independents. Her weakest area is Northeast Iowa, which has tended to go Democratic in recent years, after many years of GOP favor.
Castro-Castro's unfavorable numbers have really jumped up, and he now has a net (-1%) unfavorable rating. His number movement seems to be tied around the debates, with those who watched the debates giving him bad numbers.
Delaney Delaney's favorable numbers have dropped 10 percent and his unfavorable numbers rise.
Bullock - Still not well known with Iowans, he has a net unfavorable rating of 5%. He does better wit "Definite" caucusgoers rather than "Probable". With his red state background, it is probably not a surprise, he does well with rural voters. He has low numbers with low-income voters.
Bennet- He has a net unfavorable rating of 3%, but like Bullock, there's still more than 50% of caucusgoers who don't have an opinion of him.
Williamson- Marianne went from that 'no opinion' category to the 'unfavorable' category after the debates, She has a 9% favorable rating and a 48% unfavorable.
Sestak- High unknown (72%) but high unfavorable too (21%). None of the 602 Dems polled picked Sestak as their first choice.
Ryan- Tim Ryan is another with a high 'no opinion' category, though he is 5 points more 'unfavorable' than Bennet or Bullock. Ryan does well with rural Iowans. None of the 602 Dems polled picked Ryan as their first or second choice.
DeBlasio - None of the 602 Dems polled picked DeBalsio as their first or second choice in this poll or the last three quarters of polling. Whoo boy! No wonder he dropped out. He carried an unfavorable rating of 54%
There are, of course, more polls than the Register's, though Nate Silver does give it an A+ Rating. Here is a brief synopsis of the other two that were done at the same time.
The Binder Poll- This poll still has Biden in the lead, with a 25-23 edge. Buttigieg is in third with 12%, and Sanders drops all the way down to 9%. Amy Klobuchar is in the top 5 with 8%. Harris next with 5%, and Steyer with 3% is at 7th.
The Iowa State Poll- This poll has yet another different story. This shows Elizabeth Warren with a commanding lead (24%) and the race is for second- Biden (16%), Sanders (16%) and Buttigieg (13%) Harris is 5th (5%) and Tulsi Gabbard is at 6th with her best numbers (4%).Yang and Klobuchar both have 3%. Steyer, O'Rourke, and Booker all have 2%
Nothing to really report on the Republican side in Iowa. A generic challenge from someone like John Kasich or Michael Bloomberg was pulling 8-10% back this winter. There was a Quinnipac poll that coincided with the one that I started this post with and it shows:
Trump 80%
Weld, Walsh, Sanford 2%
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