It's not a real campaign until there is polling data
Cory Booker was here earlier this month and was the first "real"
campaign event of the season (or at least more accurately, the first one
covered by the media as such).
The Booker stop was very much in line with what one expects in the current climate. He is undoubtedly charismatic and a great speaker. As the New Republic eloquently put it, he does have a lot in common in Obama, lazy comparisons notwithstanding.
Still, Iowa is getting blitzed in October with potential candidates. Iowans will be visited by Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, Jay Inslee, Jeff Merkley, Tulsi Gabbard, Eric Slawell and Andrew Yang. Plus since nothing in life is guaranteed, it is also probably worth mentioning Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, maverick Ben Sasse, Paul Ryan, and former Independent for President Evan McMullin are also here this month.
Nothing too earth shattering here (mainly because most of the above have been here before), but the political junkie in me is excited by the first Iowa poll I have seen in some time. This polled likely Democrat caucusgoers and I saw it on the excellent IowaStartingLine.com
It's way too early of course, but you got to start somewhere, so here goes:
The poll asked who Iowan Democrats wanted to see run in 2020 and seven candidates got significant support
Joe Biden 21%
Bernie Sanders 8%
Elizabeth Warren 7%
Kamala Harris 6%
Cory Booker 5%
John Delaney 1%
Kristen Gillibrand 1%
When asked where they were leaning, the race starts to shape up:
Joe Biden 37%
Elizabeth Warren 16%
Bernie Sanders 12%
Kamala Harris 10%
Cory Booker 8%
Kristen Gillibrand 2%
Eric Holder 2%
John Delaney 1%
Michael Avenatti 1%
Of course, Biden is older now than Reagan was in 1984, so things may still be up for grabs.
Which the poll asked if Young and Fresh Idea beats Old and Experienced (It did 48%-32%).
Also notably a Senator or Congressperson was preferred over a Governor or Mayor (41-31) and someone who would compromise to get things done was seen as preferable to someone sticking to their beliefs (61-34). Also, not surprisingly in Iowa, ethanol was an issue with large support.
When given values statements, the most desirable characteristic was someone who made good judgments and listened and worked with others (94%) followed closely by someone who could heal racial, ethnic and partisan divides (91%) a climate change fighter (89%) someone with a focus on the cost of living/middle class (88%) and someone who believes in and willing to invest in science and research (85%).
Elizabeth Warren led the poll of "second choice" candidates, which was very similar to the above polls, and featured the same names, but also some significant support (1% or more) for Deval Patrick and Mitch Landrieu.
Strongly Favorable ratings looked like a good sign for some (given the caucus could always be in the middle of a snowstorm):
Sanders 37%
Holder 34%
Booker 31%
Warren 30%
Gillibrand 29%
Biden 24%
It also might to make a difference if someone catches the prospective caucusgoer's eye and those with weaker leanings decide to stray.
General favorable ratings followed a more expected path
Biden 94%
Warren 89%
Sanders 84%
Booker 68%
Holder 58%
Harris 52%
Gillibrand 44%
Since the nature of caucuses tends toward compromise, make note of those with significant unfavorable ratings
Avenatti 18%
Sanders 12%
Holder 10%
Delaney 9%
Landrieu 8%
Of course, I could do this all day, and numbers can be tinkered and toyed with to give you whatever results you want to see. So, I will just end by adding that at this point in the election cycle in 2008, John Edwards was leading most polls. So take that as your grain of salt, but also note that Barack Obama already had anywhere between ten and twenty percent support, so being a longshot even at this point may not pay off.
The Booker stop was very much in line with what one expects in the current climate. He is undoubtedly charismatic and a great speaker. As the New Republic eloquently put it, he does have a lot in common in Obama, lazy comparisons notwithstanding.
Still, Iowa is getting blitzed in October with potential candidates. Iowans will be visited by Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, Jay Inslee, Jeff Merkley, Tulsi Gabbard, Eric Slawell and Andrew Yang. Plus since nothing in life is guaranteed, it is also probably worth mentioning Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, maverick Ben Sasse, Paul Ryan, and former Independent for President Evan McMullin are also here this month.
Nothing too earth shattering here (mainly because most of the above have been here before), but the political junkie in me is excited by the first Iowa poll I have seen in some time. This polled likely Democrat caucusgoers and I saw it on the excellent IowaStartingLine.com
It's way too early of course, but you got to start somewhere, so here goes:
The poll asked who Iowan Democrats wanted to see run in 2020 and seven candidates got significant support
Joe Biden 21%
Bernie Sanders 8%
Elizabeth Warren 7%
Kamala Harris 6%
Cory Booker 5%
John Delaney 1%
Kristen Gillibrand 1%
When asked where they were leaning, the race starts to shape up:
Joe Biden 37%
Elizabeth Warren 16%
Bernie Sanders 12%
Kamala Harris 10%
Cory Booker 8%
Kristen Gillibrand 2%
Eric Holder 2%
John Delaney 1%
Michael Avenatti 1%
Of course, Biden is older now than Reagan was in 1984, so things may still be up for grabs.
Which the poll asked if Young and Fresh Idea beats Old and Experienced (It did 48%-32%).
Also notably a Senator or Congressperson was preferred over a Governor or Mayor (41-31) and someone who would compromise to get things done was seen as preferable to someone sticking to their beliefs (61-34). Also, not surprisingly in Iowa, ethanol was an issue with large support.
When given values statements, the most desirable characteristic was someone who made good judgments and listened and worked with others (94%) followed closely by someone who could heal racial, ethnic and partisan divides (91%) a climate change fighter (89%) someone with a focus on the cost of living/middle class (88%) and someone who believes in and willing to invest in science and research (85%).
Elizabeth Warren led the poll of "second choice" candidates, which was very similar to the above polls, and featured the same names, but also some significant support (1% or more) for Deval Patrick and Mitch Landrieu.
Strongly Favorable ratings looked like a good sign for some (given the caucus could always be in the middle of a snowstorm):
Sanders 37%
Holder 34%
Booker 31%
Warren 30%
Gillibrand 29%
Biden 24%
It also might to make a difference if someone catches the prospective caucusgoer's eye and those with weaker leanings decide to stray.
General favorable ratings followed a more expected path
Biden 94%
Warren 89%
Sanders 84%
Booker 68%
Holder 58%
Harris 52%
Gillibrand 44%
Since the nature of caucuses tends toward compromise, make note of those with significant unfavorable ratings
Avenatti 18%
Sanders 12%
Holder 10%
Delaney 9%
Landrieu 8%
Of course, I could do this all day, and numbers can be tinkered and toyed with to give you whatever results you want to see. So, I will just end by adding that at this point in the election cycle in 2008, John Edwards was leading most polls. So take that as your grain of salt, but also note that Barack Obama already had anywhere between ten and twenty percent support, so being a longshot even at this point may not pay off.
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