The BBQ Show
Originally Written, September 27, 2017
One thing about living in Iowa is that it is constantly election season; or perhaps it's just that politicians like to visit New Hampshire and Iowa as their pick of many possible winter vacation locations.
The conventional wisdom (as perpetuated by social media) is the Democrats are a party in ruins. This is the same thing I heard in 1984 with the Reagan landslide over Mondale. It's what we heard about the GOP in 1996 and 2012 as a two term President cruised to victory over minimal opposition.
The other talk is of the Bernie and Hillary split. I don't put much credence in this as I don't see either running in 2020 (both will be over 70). There might be hard feelings but I liken Bernie to Ron Paul, and his absence will lighten the memory. Besides my gut instinct that it's no longer a thing, and your social media feed still reading like Summer 2016, recent polls indicate Dems are more united than Republicans.
In any case, the Dems are generally the party of the Fresh Face. It's the party of Kennedy. It's the party of relative unknowns like Clinton and Obama. It's why Gary Hart, John Edwards and Dick Gephardt were exciting the first go around, but were lagging in the polls on their second efforts.
This of course, doesn't explain HRC (or Gore or Mondale), but then again she didn't win, did she?
The GOP is the Party of Nixon. it is the party of 'doing your work and putting in your time". The Party of Nixon, Reagan, Dole, and most recently Romney and McCain- candidates who fell short in their initial run. Trump doesn't follow the rule of Conventional Wisdom, but when did Trump follow CW.
There are bellwether events on both sides before the election. A prominent one was the Indianola Steak Fry which was hosted by longtime Senator Tom Harkin. Harkin has retired but the Democrats still use the fundraiser to bring big names to the Hawkeye State.
This event took place recently and despite it being very early, it is still one of those necessary stops for those who are interested in plotting out a campaign.
This early on, the heavyweights like Kaine, Biden and Booker probably don't need to pound the pavement. Still, those who are working from further behind are making their moves. The excellent Des Moines Register correspondent Jason Noble reported on the event which I drew upon here. Noble suggests some of those who attended are looking more at 2024 than 2020.
In any case, here's six people you have never heard of that could be our next President, and remember I said it first.
Tim Ryan- Everything about Tim screams Presidential candidate. He is a Representative from Ohio. He says he is not interested in running for Governor in 2018 (which frees him up for 2020), but he also says he is "probably" not running for President. In any case, if he is not running, he has been busy making trips to Iowa and South Carolina to stump for local candidates. Ryan's biggest moment has been after the election, when he ran against Nancy Pelosi for Minority Leader (She promised more opportunities for junior Congressmen and he lost by a ratio of 2-1). Ryan with his challenge of Pelosi and his trips to Carolina appears to be setting himself up as the kind of Pre-Obama Red State style Democrat that everyone thought was needed to win the White House. He is in a district that went for Trump, so the GOP will be trying to beat him before he gets the chance to do more,
Seth Moulton- Moulton is a Rep from Massachusetts who fits even more in that Jim Webb Red State mold. He's the subject of an article that is called Generals Love him, Top Democrats hate him. He has unlikely friends like David Petreaus, David Gergen and Stanley McCrystal. He had four tours of duty as a Marine in Iraq so he has been attacking Trump's military record. He was also one of the most vocal opponents of Nancy Pelosi's re-election as Minority Leader. He seems to have appeal for those red state Democrats who don't see Pelosi as a 'good kind of liberal'. Although he is from a Liberal State, he is from the most Conservative of districts there.
Jeff Merkley- There will surely be a rush to grab Bernie supporters, and this Oregon Senator will likely be one beneficiary. Merkley was the only US Senator to support Bernie Sanders. Merkley, in those "gradecard" scores of Liberalism consistently ranks with Sanders and Warren as the Bluest of the Blue. he has a Universal Health care system he calls "Medicare for All" and is a strong voice for education spending and infrastructure. Merkley has been quietly active in Iowa, so expect to hear more out of him.
Cheri Bustos - Illinois congressman Bustos based out of Peoria is probably not looking at 2020, but is a rising star in the Democrat Party. She was touted as a possible candidate for the vulnerable state house job held by Republican Bruce Rauner. She isn't running, which probably makes sense since it is an already a crowded field, one with a Kennedy, and he's not even the favorite. She was one of only eleven Representatives to win in a Trump-won district, and she won it in a landslide. She is a Pro-Choice Catholic, limited on gun control, pro-pipeline, and called the ACA "imperfect"- a center-left politician that can fight off the "out of touch Coast Liberals" . She is the only Midwesterner in the Democrat House Leadership and may have some Red State appeal that others don't.
perception.
Pete Buttigieg - Although only 35 and his highest held position is Governor of South Bend, Indiana, Buttigieg deserves some notice. He sounds like something off a check list- a gay ex-Navy Harvard graduate who has won big in a Red State. Buttigieg impresses wherever he goes and has favorable quotes from the likes of David Axelrod and Jeff Weaver, the chairman of Sanders 2016 campaign. He ran for DNC chair which put him on the radar, and is a voice for the millennials. It seems unlikely a mayor of such a relatively small town would make the Big Run, but he has been in Iowa enough that he is definitely up to something.
Grace Meng- Unlike the other six, Meng did not attend the Steak Fry, but deserves mention as she was in the State during the same time, hosting a Women's Event as DNC Vice Chair. Like Bustos, the article thinks Meng is likely looking further down the calendar than 2020. As a congresswoman representing Queens, she is the highest ranking Asian American in New York City. Her talking points have been building up a new coalition, criticizing Debra Wasserman Schultz' s tenure and saying the only way the Democrats can get back to winning is to bring in minority groups like Asians, Latinos, and African Americans.
One thing about living in Iowa is that it is constantly election season; or perhaps it's just that politicians like to visit New Hampshire and Iowa as their pick of many possible winter vacation locations.
The conventional wisdom (as perpetuated by social media) is the Democrats are a party in ruins. This is the same thing I heard in 1984 with the Reagan landslide over Mondale. It's what we heard about the GOP in 1996 and 2012 as a two term President cruised to victory over minimal opposition.
The other talk is of the Bernie and Hillary split. I don't put much credence in this as I don't see either running in 2020 (both will be over 70). There might be hard feelings but I liken Bernie to Ron Paul, and his absence will lighten the memory. Besides my gut instinct that it's no longer a thing, and your social media feed still reading like Summer 2016, recent polls indicate Dems are more united than Republicans.
In any case, the Dems are generally the party of the Fresh Face. It's the party of Kennedy. It's the party of relative unknowns like Clinton and Obama. It's why Gary Hart, John Edwards and Dick Gephardt were exciting the first go around, but were lagging in the polls on their second efforts.
This of course, doesn't explain HRC (or Gore or Mondale), but then again she didn't win, did she?
The GOP is the Party of Nixon. it is the party of 'doing your work and putting in your time". The Party of Nixon, Reagan, Dole, and most recently Romney and McCain- candidates who fell short in their initial run. Trump doesn't follow the rule of Conventional Wisdom, but when did Trump follow CW.
There are bellwether events on both sides before the election. A prominent one was the Indianola Steak Fry which was hosted by longtime Senator Tom Harkin. Harkin has retired but the Democrats still use the fundraiser to bring big names to the Hawkeye State.
This event took place recently and despite it being very early, it is still one of those necessary stops for those who are interested in plotting out a campaign.
This early on, the heavyweights like Kaine, Biden and Booker probably don't need to pound the pavement. Still, those who are working from further behind are making their moves. The excellent Des Moines Register correspondent Jason Noble reported on the event which I drew upon here. Noble suggests some of those who attended are looking more at 2024 than 2020.
In any case, here's six people you have never heard of that could be our next President, and remember I said it first.
Tim Ryan- Everything about Tim screams Presidential candidate. He is a Representative from Ohio. He says he is not interested in running for Governor in 2018 (which frees him up for 2020), but he also says he is "probably" not running for President. In any case, if he is not running, he has been busy making trips to Iowa and South Carolina to stump for local candidates. Ryan's biggest moment has been after the election, when he ran against Nancy Pelosi for Minority Leader (She promised more opportunities for junior Congressmen and he lost by a ratio of 2-1). Ryan with his challenge of Pelosi and his trips to Carolina appears to be setting himself up as the kind of Pre-Obama Red State style Democrat that everyone thought was needed to win the White House. He is in a district that went for Trump, so the GOP will be trying to beat him before he gets the chance to do more,
Seth Moulton- Moulton is a Rep from Massachusetts who fits even more in that Jim Webb Red State mold. He's the subject of an article that is called Generals Love him, Top Democrats hate him. He has unlikely friends like David Petreaus, David Gergen and Stanley McCrystal. He had four tours of duty as a Marine in Iraq so he has been attacking Trump's military record. He was also one of the most vocal opponents of Nancy Pelosi's re-election as Minority Leader. He seems to have appeal for those red state Democrats who don't see Pelosi as a 'good kind of liberal'. Although he is from a Liberal State, he is from the most Conservative of districts there.
Jeff Merkley- There will surely be a rush to grab Bernie supporters, and this Oregon Senator will likely be one beneficiary. Merkley was the only US Senator to support Bernie Sanders. Merkley, in those "gradecard" scores of Liberalism consistently ranks with Sanders and Warren as the Bluest of the Blue. he has a Universal Health care system he calls "Medicare for All" and is a strong voice for education spending and infrastructure. Merkley has been quietly active in Iowa, so expect to hear more out of him.
Cheri Bustos - Illinois congressman Bustos based out of Peoria is probably not looking at 2020, but is a rising star in the Democrat Party. She was touted as a possible candidate for the vulnerable state house job held by Republican Bruce Rauner. She isn't running, which probably makes sense since it is an already a crowded field, one with a Kennedy, and he's not even the favorite. She was one of only eleven Representatives to win in a Trump-won district, and she won it in a landslide. She is a Pro-Choice Catholic, limited on gun control, pro-pipeline, and called the ACA "imperfect"- a center-left politician that can fight off the "out of touch Coast Liberals" . She is the only Midwesterner in the Democrat House Leadership and may have some Red State appeal that others don't.
perception.
Pete Buttigieg - Although only 35 and his highest held position is Governor of South Bend, Indiana, Buttigieg deserves some notice. He sounds like something off a check list- a gay ex-Navy Harvard graduate who has won big in a Red State. Buttigieg impresses wherever he goes and has favorable quotes from the likes of David Axelrod and Jeff Weaver, the chairman of Sanders 2016 campaign. He ran for DNC chair which put him on the radar, and is a voice for the millennials. It seems unlikely a mayor of such a relatively small town would make the Big Run, but he has been in Iowa enough that he is definitely up to something.
Grace Meng- Unlike the other six, Meng did not attend the Steak Fry, but deserves mention as she was in the State during the same time, hosting a Women's Event as DNC Vice Chair. Like Bustos, the article thinks Meng is likely looking further down the calendar than 2020. As a congresswoman representing Queens, she is the highest ranking Asian American in New York City. Her talking points have been building up a new coalition, criticizing Debra Wasserman Schultz' s tenure and saying the only way the Democrats can get back to winning is to bring in minority groups like Asians, Latinos, and African Americans.
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