Left of the Dial (Slight Return)

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In May, I shared the results of the DFA poll- the group that formed as a result of Howard Dean’s failed Presidential bid.


Since this is a progressive group, you should take the results with a grain of salt.
They have historically supported Bernie Sanders and in Iowa and New Hampshire, there is no doubt, he has the backing of this group.

The National Numbers show a bit of where Liberals are leaning (Sanders 32% Warren 26% Harris 12% Biden 10% Yang 7%)
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There is little news here but a quick glance shows that Progressives are starting to abandon Buttigieg. There is real momentum for Warren and Harris, unsurprisingly. Lastly, Mike Gravel and his non campaign has seen its support dissipate.

I will share the Iowa results here. Of more interest to me, they cross referenced support with what drove the numbers. It gives an interesting idea of what each candidate’s niche might be (or what is perceived, anyway). As candidates drop, you might make reasonable assumptions as where that volume could go.

Anyway here goes:

Sanders 42.7 (Medicare For All)
Warren 19.8 (Green New Deal)
Harris 9.4 (GND)
Buttigieg 7.3 (GND)
Gabbard 6.3 (End Forever Wars)
Biden 5.2 (Impeach Trump)
O’Rourke 3.1 (Immigration)
Yang 2.1 (Universal Basic Income)
Booker 2.1 (GND)
Williamson 1 (GND)
Klobuchar 1 (GND)

Those who did not garnish 1% of the vote in Iowa.
Green New Deal: Gillibrand, Inslee, Gravel, Bennet
End Citizens United: Moulton, Bullock, Hickenlooper
$15 Minimum Wage: Ryan, Messam
Bipartisanship: Delaney
Impeach Trump: DeBlasio
Immigration: Castro

As issues may rise and fall this cycle or next, maybe we can glean something from all this.
...or maybe not.

In any case, it’s been awhile since the Des Moines Register has released a poll, but there’s constant polling. Wikipedia is one of the sites that compiles various polls.

There is a certain thread right now (mainly based off that Register Poll) but the truth is it is very much in the air.

Here are the last four Iowa poll results (June/July) listed. If you are one of five campaigns, you are probably going to make a case you are winning the state.

Poll#1 - YouGov/CBS - July 9-18
Biden 24%
Sanders 19%
Warren 17%
Harris 16%
Buttigieg 7%

Poll#2- Change Research June 29-July 4
Buttigieg 25%
Warren 18%
Biden, Harris, Sanders 16%

 Poll#3- David Binder Research- June 29- July 1 
Warren 20%
Harris 18%
Biden 17%
Sanders 12%
Buttigieg 10%

 Poll#4- USA Today June 28- July 1
 Biden 24%
Harris 16%
Warren 13%
Sanders 9%
Buttigieg 6%

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